2023 election: Obi will lose by landslide, By Kunle Awosiyan

For now the loudest supporters of any presidential candidate are that of Peter Obi of Labour Party but the 2023 election will shock them because the party will lose by landslide.

There is one thing about them; they are very loud but they know nothing or very little about politics and how politicians win election in this country.

They are also very aggressive both physically and on social media platforms. They use vulgar languages even though their candidate has proven to be very decorous in his approach to issues.

Most of them do not have facts to sell their candidate, they only have tongues to de-market his opponents in this race. They are easily carried away by economic statistics their candidate reels out on a daily basis without checking if the datas are correct or not.

They have come at the late hours and will have to wait for the next train.

My message for them is that the train of 2023 had long gone and there are just two set of passengers in it; those of the APC and the PDP.

I’m so sure that Peter Obi will lose but then his “Obedient Movement” will live to become a new shift in the politics of this nation if he would stay with Labour Party after 2023. His movement can grow roots and become a formidable party.

He will lose because there are no seasoned politicians in Labour Party. Those in Labour Party, including its candidate are seasonal politicians who have no solid base or grassroots mobilisers that can push electorate for bulk votes across the country.

I have been privileged to monitor elections in some parts of this country and observed that 80 per cent of registered voters don’t come out to vote on election day.

About 10 per cent come out and out of this number, 80 per cent of it are mostly grassroots politicians that are usually mobilised to the polling units by local government councillors, chairmen, party executive members and foot soldiers.

Apart from this, politicians and political parties over the years have extended their structure to Community Development Association, CDAs, Community Development Committees, CDC where members are structured to vote for a popular party.

For instance, Alimosho Local Government Area of Lagos State has always recorded the highest concentration of votes for any ruling party in Lagos not because there are no other political parties, including LP but the ruling party has got strongest grassroots mobilisers there.

This strategy cuts across except in areas where the local leaders are weak. I ask, who and where are LP councillors, local leaders who will not only shout on social media pages but stand against the stronger forces in the interior parts of this country.

I ask, can Obi walk majestically to Anambra where LP has no single councillor to mobilise the APGA grassroots politicians to work for LP? He will have to meet Governor Chukwuma Soludo of APGA first for a blessing before he can use the APGA councillors and other local mobilisers.

That is how it works in Nigeria politics. No matter how loud you are on the social media platforms, a candidate must eat his humble pie and seek the cooperation of the party’s state leader, the governor, to use his structure.

About four years ago, it took the cooperation of the then SDP governorship candidate, Senator Iyiola Omisore with Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola of APC to win a governorship supplementary election in Ife south of Osun State.

The PDP supporters that were making noise on social media could not beat the votes of the grassroots people in the villages of Ile-Ife that were mobilised by Omisore.

What will Obi make out of a state that has about six million registered voters but only one million will come out to vote and out of this voters, about 80 per cent of them had been mobilised by popular party.

No doubt, new voters, mostly youths will come out this time to vote, Obi should know that they will only increase the number of votes across board, their number can never win election for LP because the Grand Old Parties will intensify effort on their mobilisation to win the election.

And when I say mobilisation, I mean funding, which I do not think LP is ready or has the capacity to do at present. Why Obi will lose is because his supporters are more in the city than in the villages.

Votes will come from the creek, in the woods and it will favour parties and candidates who have got the phone numbers of the councillors on ground, the ruling party chairmen and leaders. Obi does not have all of these except the Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp group