What 2025 by-election means to political parties, by Micheal Oni

It is no longer news that INEC is conducting by-elections in 12 states of the federation tomorrow.The bby-election spreads across five geopolitical zones of Southeast, Southwest, Southsouth, Northeast, and Northwest.The states are Anambra,Enugu, Edo, Oyo, Ogun, Kano,Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba,Kogi, Niger and Zamfara.

By-election is conducted to fill a vacancy arising from death, resignation, impeachment, or infirmity. It is provided for in sections 76(2) and 116 (2) of the 1999 Constitution.

The conduct of tomorrow. ‘s by-election across Nigeria falls within the above continuum except for impeachment. For example, in Oyo and Ogun states, the former occupants died. In Edo, the former occupant, Monday Okpheolo, resigned to contest for the governorship of the state and won.He needs to be replaced in the red chamber.

What this write up is about is not who will win in the states but what it is directed at, is what a victory in each state portends to five of the 17 political parties participating at the election These are ADC, APC,APGA, LP and and PDP ahead of 2027 general elections.

Tomorrow’s by-election nationwide meant different things to many political gladiators. For the promoters of the newly formed coalition (ADC) is a victory across the states of the federation.lt is a signal that other parties must be careful as this is a positive indication that the road to 2027 is being cleared for the party.lt is a lead way to measure whether Peter Obi will still be required to be in the coalition or can be dispensed with.

To the APC the victory of the party in tomorrow’s election will be a great relief and save it a present headache arising from the formation of a dreaded coalition. The victory indicates that the APC has more time to concentrate on governance.

APGA’s victory in today’s Senatorial election in Anambra by-election is that winning the November governorship election is a forgone conclusion and that LP must be careful.
In Kaduna state, a victory for ADC is a victory for El Rufai and his coalition partners. It is an indication that Babachair Lawal’s threat is real and that APC must watch it.

In Edo, a win in the Senatorial by-election by APC today confirms that the party actually election won 2024 governorship election in the state.lt is also an indication that the party is popular. A loss confirms the opposition’s claim that the election was manipulated.

The by-election in Adamawa and Taraba states and victory for him or ADC is a lot for the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar. A win by his coalition, a morale lifter for him. Whereas, a loss will be depressing and he needs to sleep less and work harder if Aso Rock is his mission.
In Oyo, a loss by the PDP is a loss for SEYI Makinde and portends a danger signal for the PDP in the state.

Summary of the article:
This article discusses the significance of the 2025 by-elections in Nigeria for various political parties, including APC, ADC, APGA, LP, and PDP. The author, Professor Michael Abiodun Oni, analyzes what a victory in each state might mean for these parties ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Some key points:

• The by-elections are being held in 12 states across five geopolitical zones.
• A victory for ADC could signal a strong showing in the 2027 elections and potentially impact coalition dynamics.
• APC’s victory would be a relief for the party and allow them to focus on governance.
• APGA’s victory in Anambra could indicate a strong chance of winning the November governorship election.
• The outcome in Edo state could validate or invalidate the 2024 governorship election results.

The article provides insight into the strategic importance of these by-elections for the participating parties and their potential implications for the 2027 elections.

-Oni is a Professor of Political Science and Public Administration