Atiku, Mark, Aregbesola; Where would ADC go from here?, By Kola Amzat

Suddenly, the momentum has gone down. The Eagle has refused to fly and ascend! The elegant horse has refused to move, even with the well-decorated cart!

The rancorous noise that attended the hijack and declaration of ADC Coalition as a party to unhorse the ruling party has disappeared into oblivion, giving way to despondence, frustration and fear of imminent crushing defeat at polls.

The hen has come home to roost.

Atiku Abubakar is not only losing grip at national level; he has also lost it right there at Adamawa. The belligerent Babachir Lawal is already in contention with him over who should be the chairman of the party in the state. 

David Mark had a huge success in his military career, with his ascension to the office of federal minister of communication, and more importantly, a key figure of IBB/Abacha imperial military domination of the country for about 14 years. The Oturkpo born retired Brigadier General also had a prosperous political career as PDP chieftain, with an unassailable twenty (20) years at the Upper Chamber of National Assembly, eight (8) of which he reigned as senate president. But, he’s already aware that his ascendance to chairmanship of ADC is a political misadventure. No shadow of doubt, David Mark is presently in “one chance” bus; only God would rescue him.

In Osun state, where Aregbesola once held sway, he’s now a political orphan. After his inauguration as ADC national Secretary, he suddenly realized that Osun people have totally forgotten anything that connects with his name.

El-Rufai is sandwiched in the midst of thorn bush in Kaduna state. In the state where he once reigned like Emperor, he’s practically been abandoned, as he operates like a lone ranger. ADC would soon realize that he’s a political liability.

Rotimi Amaechi has been politically swallowed in Rivers state. The hitherto gregarious former Rivers governor, and a formidable player in late Buhari’s presidency might have lost everything politically.

It’s instructive to note that the aforementioned political figures hold the aces for the prospect of ADC coalition and now that they are all battling for political survival, even in their respective states, it would be interesting how they would collectively turn the already battered fortune of the party around.  

Their deficient strategic plans anchored on four (4) devilish agenda to undo and unhorse the president and his government have all fallen flat, bowing onto tactical and superior strategic initiatives of the president and his team.

For emphasis, they’d planned to hoodwink the populace of the inadequacies of government diverse reforms to address the huge challenges in the economy.

To the consternation of ADC leadership hierarchy and other opposition groups, the removal of the long-standing and costly petroleum subsidy has been lauded by institutions like the World Bank and IMF as a necessary step for fiscal discipline. The bold initiative is presently generating savings over N2 trillion a month, which is being redirected to other critical sectors of the economy, as well as being distributed to states as allocations for development in all spheres at the grass root level.

The merging of all foreign exchange windows, a tough initiative aimed at ensuring transparency and market-driven currency management, has reportedly restored investor confidence, leading to significant foreign portfolio inflows and significant upswing in the nation foreign reserves.

As I put up this piece, Nigerian foreign reserves in November stood at $46.7billion, a remarkable development by all standards.

Nigeria’s consumer price inflation has further in November 2025, eased to 14.45% from 16.05% in October.

Debt-servicing ratio has significantly improved from 97% to about 65% in November, a testament to increased government revenues, a sign of success.

The government is equally focused on improving fiscal discipline, reducing leakages, and increasing non-oil revenue through the full digitization of revenue collection and a comprehensive tax reform that consolidates multiple taxes into a single framework.     

Atiku Abubakar and his ADC travelers equally planned to appeal to the sentiments of very few disgruntled members of armed forces with inordinate ambition, to halt the country democratic process by staging a coup. The coup plotters have been promptly exposed, rounded up and already in the interrogation rooms of the military authority.

Meanwhile, the ever-alert, resourceful, strategic, no-nonsense and purposeful president has since carried a major reshuffle in the defence architecture of the country, bringing in a new defence minister rooted in the military traditions and customs, as well as effecting sweeping changes in the service chiefs hierarchy, a development aimed at instilling discipline and professionalism in the armed forces of the country.    

Thirdly, the former vice presidential candidate as the major financier and backbone of the party covertly planned to co opt and cultivate Peter Obi to run on the same ticket with him. The Turaki Adamawa acted as if he’s unaware that Obi harbours inordinate ambition to rule over Nigeria, despite the fact that his tenure as governor of Anambra state was not salutary, leaving on his trail many unanswered questions. The joint ticket has since collapsed. The resort to Rotimi Amaechi for possible replacement has equally gone awry.

Finally, it’s also in the agenda of ADC leadership to hoodwink foreign powers of the dire insecurity in the country and thereby cultivate them to intervene in the security situation, a development they’re convinced would rail road the re-election of the president.

They almost succeeded with this plan, but, for the swift response of the Nigerian government, and the country’s foreign allies and generality of Nigerians who rose to debunk the allegation of President Donald Trump that Christians are being persecuted in Nigeria and the American solution is to invade Nigeria through the American Department of War.    

The Joint US-Nigeria team meant to address this situation has since found out the country was wrongly alleged.

Meanwhile, while ADC top members and other opposition groups were making the clandestine movement, the president was busy consolidating.

It’s no longer news that APC has almost eroded the base of major opposition groups in the country…PDP, as almost all its governors have defected to the ruling party.

With the present political calculation, the president would no doubt enjoy bloc votes in South-west, South-south, South-east and North-west.

Even, the Commander-in-Chief remains the candidate to beat in the entire North West, particularly with key political figures in Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kano opting to make APC their home, and Katsina, where Emir of Daura and his emirates have sworn to reward the president for his avowed loyalty to late president, Muhammud Buhari.

The voting pattern has significantly altered in the North East, as the electorates had in the last two electoral cycles swung to the camp of APC. In the coming elections, the pattern in Borno, Yobe, Taraba and Gombe would not change.

This writer also foresees Atiku struggling in Adamawa and Bauchi states, the states that used to be his political fortress.  

This is the present reality as the nation inches to another electoral cycle.        

Kola AMZAT (FCA, FCIB)

Lagos based Financial & Management Consultants,

09077509348.