Wike’s desperate fight against the odds, by Bolaji Adebiyi

FCT minister needs a comprehensive review of his tactical situation if he is to survive, writes Bolaji Adebiyi

Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, has been at his most truculent in recent days, aggressively targeting perceived political opponents from all directions. To be fair to him, he promised last year that his political activities would begin this January. He is honouring that promise.

In recent weeks, he has confronted his significant opponents. His former political allies in the People’s Democratic Party, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, were on the receiving end of his harsh criticism in the final days of last year. In an end-of-year television interview, he ridiculed the self-proclaimed US dollar millionaire as a political ignoramus who lacked the substance to hold the important office of President of Nigeria. Wike claimed Makinde was a liar who would have been nothing in politics without him.

To give the FCT minister his due, he responded to the Oyo State governor in kind. The governor, in an earlier television interview, accused the minister of being an agent provocateur within the troubled PDP. Makinde alleged that Wike has been acting on a script he promised President Bola Tinubu to undermine the PDP for his own benefit ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. The minister said this was a lie driven by malice and desperation on the governor’s part.

The altercation between Wike and Makinde underscores the deep crisis within the main opposition PDP. At the centre of the crisis that has hampered the party is the FCT minister, who has remained inconsolable since losing the party’s presidential and vice-presidential tickets in 2022. Given his disruptive activities since then, it is tempting to give the Oyo State governor the benefit of the doubt.

With both characters leading two dominant factions of the party, the crisis has placed ambitious members in a political dilemma as the nation prepares to resume electoral campaigns in the second quarter. If anyone doubts the serious implications of the crisis for the party’s electoral future, the recent meeting with the Independent National Electoral Commission, led by Prof. Joash Amupitan, should have dispelled those doubts. During the meeting, the commission informed party leaders that they were on a legal tightrope.

The party’s governorship aspirants in Ekiti and Osun States are already casualties of the crisis, as the PDP has been unable to produce valid candidates due to INEC’s refusal to recognise any of the warring factions. The silver lining, however, is that disputants have submitted their grievances to the courts for resolution. Hopefully, as Tanimu Turaki, the mainstream national chairman, suggested, the judiciary will make a determination early enough for the party to organise itself for the 2027 general election.

Nonetheless, Wike has been effectively positioned as the aggressor in the heated controversy. With 26 of the 36 state chairmen backing the Makinde-led faction, it is difficult to see how the FCT minister plans to navigate the minefield should his faction prevail in court. In such a scenario, how will he reconcile his declared support for President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid with the PDP’s effort to unseat the APC government, which they regard as a disaster? Will he persuade the PDP to adopt President Tinubu? Where will that leave the PDP presidential hopefuls? And how will he handle the conflict of interest that will emerge from his support for the President’s re-election and the party’s interests in the gubernatorial races across the states?

This conflict of interest is already unfolding in his Rivers State homestead. Overwhelmed by Wike’s bullying, Siminalayi Fubara, the governor, left the PDP for the ruling APC last year seeking refuge. It is notable that this move happened a day after the governor met with the President in Abuja, indicating presidential approval. Clearly dissatisfied with the move, Wike has launched a fierce anti-Fubara campaign across the state, facing resistance from the APC national leadership, which feels compelled to defend one of its members. Both Nentawe Yilwatda, the national chairman, and Ajibola Bashiru, the national secretary, have made it clear to Wike that he would not be permitted to interfere in the APC’s affairs from his PDP base.

The dust from the altercation between the FCT minister and the APC national leadership was still settling when the minister’s allies in the Rivers State House of Assembly moved against the governor on Thursday, initiating an impeachment process for his removal. Now, 17 of the 26 members who brought the motion for the notice of impeachment, citing various offences by the governor, recently defected to the APC. Despite the substance of the assemblymen’s allegations, the question remains whether President Tinubu and the APC national leadership will permit a bipartisan removal of one of their own from office?

The feelings from the APC national leadership and its Governors’ Forum are that this impeachment move, masterminded by Wike, is likely to be resisted by the party’s establishment, which may pressure the president to intervene in favour of the embattled governor. Will the president, who will rely on these two powerful pressure groups to secure his second-term ticket bid, be able to withstand their pressure? It is unlikely. So, where does this leave Wike if President Tinubu caves in?

It is a precarious situation for Wike, whose objectives seem difficult to attain. The first aim, which is to take control of the PDP machinery, is being vehemently opposed by the party’s mainstream, who hope the courts will thwart the FCT minister’s bid by ruling in favour of the numerous cases. The second goal, aimed at preventing Fubara from securing a second term, also seems doomed as the APC leadership has made it clear that he will not be allowed to interfere in the party’s affairs from his PDP base.

This may have compelled Wike to go all-in, orchestrating a removal process that, if successful, will make Fubara ineligible to run on any party platform. Will he succeed? Not likely, but time will tell.

Adebiyi, Fellow of the Nigerian Guild of Editors, writes from Abuja.