A Muslim running mate to Tinubu, By Femi Onibonoje
Asíwájú Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from the Southwest and the APC presidential candidate is yet to choose his running mate.
In recent elections, Nigerians have always made religion and ethnicity major issues in the presidential contests. Sadly so, but the issues have always come from religious suspicion and identity politics.
There is a present agitation by the Christian community that the running mate should be a Christian from the North, for both regional and religious balance. The agitation is more pronounce in the Southern part of the country, and on social media.
For all intent and identity purpose, I would have loved to align with such call that a Christian should be BAT’s running mate, but I am a realist who is always very low on emotions compared to logic.
My Opinion:
I believe that the slot of the running mate to BAT is for the Northern bloc in APC to fill. Asíwájú should allow the popular opinion among the Northern leaders and populace to determine his choice among their nominated candidates. If they settle for a politically-grounded and capable Muslim or Christian or others that can win them the needed votes, Asíwájú should abide. Asíwájú is a well-known liberal individual that is capable of protecting the interests of every section of Nigeria.
The Issues at Stake:
- The first target of a political party is to win an election. Asíwájú and APC should take a decision that will first guarantee winning or gives an advantage. If they pick a running mate based on any other consideration and lose, how will they even make policies that will protect the people they are sentimental about. Tinubu and the party would have to make a realistic TRADE-OFF.
Look at the PDP, a party that blatantly jettisoned a clearly written section of its own constitution to pick a Northern candidate in order to the win by hook or by crook. Nobody is even asking that question yet. PDP and Atiku can not definitely blackmail APC with religion. APC will counter them with political stability.
- The Northern region is always more daring and more united about the interest of their region. If the popular opinion there is that they want a person of their region and their identified faith to be on the ticket, so be it. I believe that no one forces a minority opinion on a majority that he/she needs a favour from.
The Possible Fallouts:
- Most South West Christians will not reject Tinubu for Atiku based on RELIGION. After 8 years of President Buhari (Northern Muslim), what would be their justification of voting for an Atiku. Is Atiku Abubakar a SOUTHERNER or a CHRISTIAN? The commoners in the South West will choose ethnicity over religion.
Those that will not support Asíwájú in the southwest are not going to do so because of the faith of his running mate. They have their reasons.
- South East will not vote for Tinubu even if he converts to a Christian and picks a Christian VP. I think they should rather be more adversarial to the PDP that they have always served, and has always betrayed them. The advantage for Tinubu here is that their bloc vote will not be for Atiku. I will address SE separately later.
- South South votes for Tinubu will be impacted if Atiku picks his running mate there. And BAT picking a Northern Christian VP will not change that.
- A little part of North Central and North East zones are where picking a Muslim running mate by Tinubu might have a relative negative impact on. These are majorly Benue, Plateau, Taraba and a part of Adamawa.
- North West and the larger part of the North East would not likely be swayed to vote for Asíwájú if he picks a Christian running mate among them.
In my conclusion, I think that a Muslim running mate to Asíwájú BAT is a possibility in reality to win the 2023 election.
President Buhari and the other Northern leaders (mainly from the NW and NE) would most likely determine the Vice Presidential candidate of the APC.
Postscript:
My pick for the VP slot is Gov. Babagana Zulum.
-Onibonoje PhD, an Associate Professor writes from Afe Babalola University, Ado Ekiti
