A year after Niger’s coup: Life becomes more dangerous and desperate

A year has passed since a group of military officers appeared on Niger’s state television to announce a dramatic coup, citing security and economic crises as their reasons for deposing the West African nation’s elected government. However, these challenges have not only persisted but worsened.

The country’s 26 million people — among the world’s youngest and poorest — are struggling after the junta severed ties with key international partners, leading to sanctions and the suspension of security and development support that previously accounted for nearly half of Niger’s budget.

Niger’s coup was the latest and perhaps most significant in a series of recent military takeovers in Africa’s Sahel, the vast, arid expanse south of the Sahara Desert that has become a global hotspot for extremist violence. Niger had been the West’s last reliable partner in the region in battling jihadists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.

Now, a crucial U.S. drone base is being dismantled, with U.S. forces vacating ahead of a September deadline. More than 1,000 French troops have also pulled out after being ordered to leave. A key China-backed pipeline intended to transform Niger into an oil exporter has stalled due to insecurity and uncertainty.

International support, notably from the European Union, had constituted close to 40% of Niger’s budget. With that gone, “we are only looking for something to live on,” said Ibrahim Amani, a resident in the capital, Niamey, noting that everything has become more expensive.

On the streets, where thousands of young people had initially cheered the coup, frustration is growing. Public protests are absent, likely due to fears of retaliation by the junta, which still detains deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. The junta has announced plans to charge him with treason, a move widely criticized abroad.

“There is a real depressing effect on the ability of the government to provide services and on the ability of businesses to thrive,” said Daniel Eizenga, a research fellow with the African Center for Strategic Studies.

As Niger’s military leaders consolidated their grip on power, they promised a three-year transition to civilian rule. Analysts now say this is unlikely to happen on time.

The junta, along with those in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, is breaking away from long-time West African allies. The three countries, after expelling the forces of former colonizer France, have “completely changed the geopolitical dynamics” of the region and are forming an anti-Western, pro-Russian alliance, according to Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Russia’s presence in the Sahel is new, but its ability to compensate for Niger’s lost security support is limited. “Niger’s army is running out of material with the retreat of Western forces which the Russians – who have sent troops to Niger as its new security partner – can only partly compensate,” Laessing said.

On the ground, insecurity has worsened. Niger has quickly become a new target for extremists. Violent killings by rebels and militia groups more than doubled, from 770 in the year before the coup to 1,599 in the year following, according to the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).

Extremists carried out nearly five times as many large-scale attacks — involving at least 10 deaths — in the year after the coup, ACLED data shows.

“Al-Qaida and IS militants have … consolidated control over more territory since the junta took power by taking advantage of security force limitations that the withdrawal of Western support has contributed to,” the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project reported.

This trend mirrors what has been seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, even after military juntas invoked insecurity to justify taking power, experts have said.

“The coming years are likely to be difficult and violent in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, given the absence of clear inclusive strategies,” said Alexander Thurston, an associate professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, in a recent report.

Niger’s junta leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, outlined his goals for the country in a government document published last week: for it to be a sovereign nation that controls its resources, for good governance and justice to reign, and for citizens to be able to work.

However, the military rulers are “tightening their grip on opposition, civil society, and independent media,” Samira Daoud, Amnesty International’s regional director for West and Central Africa, said Thursday in a statement condemning dozens of “arbitrary arrests” in Niger over the past year.

For refusing to resign as president after being deposed, Bazoum has no public access apart from a doctor’s visit twice a week, and the conditions of his detention are “becoming increasingly severe,” said Reed Brody, one of his lawyers.

On the business front, Niger’s already import-dependent economy is reeling from sanctions and the impact of border closures in the early days after the coup.

The status of hundreds of millions of euros in support from the European Union, one of Niger’s biggest donors, remains unclear. This affects agriculture, education, security, businesses, and humanitarian activities, along with work addressing migration.

Neither Russia nor other countries like Iran, with whom Niger’s junta is seeking closer ties, are likely to step up and fill such gaps, said Eizenga with the African Center for Strategic Studies.

“Russia is ultimately acting in the interest of Russia,” he said. “And none of these other countries has the resources to provide the assistance that former partners did.”