Adeleke and the APC gamble: a looming storm in Osun politics, by AbdurRahman Adegunju
Should Governor Adeleke, against all odds, cross over to the APC, the political landscape of Osun State will be hit by a tremor of seismic proportions. Here’s what is bound to happen:
The Osun PDP will collapse like a house of cards. Devoid of its sole financier and political strongman, the party will be reduced to a shadow of its former self.
Adeleke will not only ascend instantly as the de facto leader of the APC in Osun, but also become the automatic party’s candidate in the Osun 2026 gubernatorial election. His influence, resources, and populist appeal will shove Oyetola and his loyalists into the sidelines. The former helmsmen of the APC will be forced to watch from the margins as Adeleke calls the shots.
The mother of all internal crises will erupt within the APC. Adeleke’s entry will not be a quiet one. Bruised by past hostilities and perceived persecution from the APC, he will be poised to settle old scores. Revenge politics will take centre stage, and factions will clash violently over control.
Aregbesola’s ADC may arise as the unexpected beneficiary. The anticipated implosion within both the APC and the defunct PDP will drive thousands of disgruntled foot soldiers to seek refuge in the only ‘organized’ alternative, the ADC. What was once considered a fringe party will suddenly become the beautiful bride in Osun’s power equation.
Hostilities will be reignited.The uneasy calm between the APC and the ADC will give way to renewed warfare, as both parties scramble to consolidate their bases and outmaneuver each other.
As Adeleke tiptoes through the final stages of his transition, allegedly completing his ‘political medicals’ in the APC, we brace ourselves for what may become one of the most unprecedented and politically volcanic realignments in Osun’s history.
–Adegunju is a public affairs analyst and APC member from Osun State
