ANALYSIS: Atiku’s choice, By Chris Adetayo

Like his All Progressives Congress counterpart, Abubakar Atiku of the PDP has a tough decision to make about who to tag on his ticket. He’s in the leading opposition party so he needs all the help he can get to deliver the goods. He also has to consider geography, religion, political capital. Even more important, with a “3rd Force” that will impact voting patterns in a way still to be determined, he faces a tricky situation. So what do we currently know?

Geography – He has to go South. Of the 3 zones, the South West is the least attractive simply because his main opponent, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is from this region. He cannot hope to swing votes in the SW by offering a lesser role to the teaming voters in the region. That leaves him with the South East and South South. Both have tended to vote Peoples Democratic Party from time, so a choice from either will consolidate on the historical support for the party.

Religion – Atiku does not face the dilemma of BAT. He will pick a Christian. QED!

Political Capital – Who has the greatest political capital to help him? Rivers Gov, Wike, was his closest challenger for the PDP ticket. He has critical resources that can be thrown in to support the ticket. He also talks a good game – nothing intellectual, just a lot of bluster. In addition, Rivers has one of the largest votes in the whole of the South. That’s a big incentive in a first past the post system we practice. But there’s also Delta State where a relatively quiet but effective Gov Okowa holds away.

The Obi Factor – Peter Obi creates a big dilemma for Atiku and the PDP. It’s early days but he’s making an impression that, if maintained, is certain to eat into the support and votes of the 2 major candidates. Obi’s greatest support is going to come from the South. Of the 3 zones, the SE is likely to be even more impacted, in which case Atiku is at risk of losing the greatest. Can he find someone from the SE to mitigate the Obi effect? Or should he cut his loses and prioritise the SS instead?

The patented Politic-o-meter believes that Atiku will go to the SS for his choice. Between Okowa and Wike, the former is favoured. He has an impressive CV (similar to the current VP), is a 2-term Gov, is a unifying figure (as opposed to the rabble rousing figure from Rivers), and can bring in critically required resources too. He’s also Igbo, so should appeal to pragmatists from the SE.

Any dark horses? I see none!!