Analysis: High-stakes battle between APC’s Olatunji and PDP’s Folajimi in Ibadan North bye-election

By Adejayan Gbenga –

As the Ibadan North Federal Constituency prepares for its bye-election, two candidates have emerged at the center of an increasingly tense political showdown: Adewale Olatunji, popularly known as Murphy, representing the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Hon. Folajimi Oyekunle, fondly called DoN, flying the flag of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

For the APC, the stakes are high. Ibadan North has long been a strategic stronghold for the ruling party in Oyo State, and the late Hon. Musiliu Akinremi, affectionately known as Jagaban, left behind not just a seat—but a political legacy. Now, the party is betting on Olatunji, a loyalist with close ties to the late lawmaker, to carry that torch.

Murphy’s candidacy comes with considerable backing from the APC establishment. The party leadership has framed the bye-election as a matter of continuity, casting Olatunji as the natural successor to Akinremi’s influence and vision. High-profile endorsements and mobilization efforts are already underway, signaling the APC’s determination to maintain its grip on the constituency.

But beneath the surface, cracks are showing. Several aspirants within the party have openly criticized the primary process that produced Olatunji, calling it flawed and undemocratic. The fallout from that controversy could dampen enthusiasm among grassroots supporters, many of whom feel sidelined. For a party that thrives on structure and unity, such divisions pose a real risk.

Across the aisle, the PDP is taking a quieter but calculated approach. Hon. Folajimi Oyekunle, or DoN as he is widely known, emerged from a primary widely regarded as peaceful and credible—an important win for a party often criticized for internal chaos. His nomination was not marred by controversy, giving him a strong start and a message of transparency that resonates with voters seeking change.

DoN’s campaign is strategically banking on the APC’s internal struggles. With murmurs of discontent within APC ranks, the PDP is positioning itself as a united alternative. If voter frustration over candidate imposition turns into apathy or protest votes, the PDP could turn the tide in areas previously dominated by the ruling party.

However, challenges remain. The APC’s vast organizational machinery and influence across the state are not to be underestimated. DoN must overcome resource gaps and mobilize aggressively, particularly in wards that lean APC. Turnout will be key and if the PDP fails to energize its base, the APC might still cruise to victory on its structural advantage alone.

As of late July 2025, political watchers say the APC retains a statistical edge, thanks to its network, name recognition, and control of the state apparatus. But the party’s internal crisis could level the playing field. For DoN, this bye-election may be his best shot at flipping the seat and it will come down to how effectively both sides can get their supporters to the ballot box.

The race is shaping up to be highly competitive, with Governor Seyi Makinde representing the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while the All Progressives Congress (APC) is determined to win back the seat.

This bye-election is also seen as a litmus test ahead of the upcoming governorship election in the state, making it a must-win for both parties.

In Ibadan North, the race is on—not just between two candidates, but between unity and division, legacy and legitimacy.