ANALYSIS: Opposition unity faces fresh test as Makinde joins 2027 presidential race

By Adejayan Gbenga –

The declaration by Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, to pursue the presidency under a proposed PDP-APM coalition may further complicate Nigeria’s opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 election.

Rather than strengthening the anti-Tinubu bloc, Makinde’s emergence appears to worsen the fragmentation already threatening the opposition’s chances against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress.

At the heart of the political reality facing the opposition is a simple calculation: no single opposition figure currently possesses the nationwide structure, regional spread, financial network and elite consensus required to defeat Tinubu alone. That reality produced the coalition that brought the APC to power in 2015.

The Buhari coalition template

The victory of former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 did not happen because one opposition leader suddenly became stronger than the ruling PDP. It happened because multiple political parties collapsed into one formidable machine.

The old Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) controlled Buhari’s northern voting base. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) brought the South-West political machinery led by Tinubu. Elements of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) added northern establishment influence, while defectors from the PDP injected national reach and elite legitimacy.

That merger created a rare national coalition with one candidate, one structure and one message. Today, however, the opposition appears to be moving in the opposite direction.

A divided opposition field

Instead of a united opposition front, three major figures are now operating in parallel.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar commands influence within the ADC and parts of the northern political establishment. Peter Obi retains a passionate youth-driven support base and significant appeal in the South-East and urban centres, while Makinde is now attempting to build a third force around his South-West influence and the proposed PDP-APM arrangement.

The implication is dangerous for the opposition.

Rather than pooling votes and structures, the anti-Tinubu bloc risks splitting into multiple competing camps, each individually too weak to overcome the APC’s national machinery.

Tinubu’s structural advantage

Despite economic hardship and rising public dissatisfaction, Tinubu still holds significant institutional advantages heading into 2027.

The APC controls the federal government, a majority of state governments and extensive grassroots political structures across several regions. The presidency also benefits from incumbency powers, elite bargaining influence and control of key political alliances.

More importantly, Tinubu remains one of the most experienced coalition builders in Nigerian politics. His political strength has never depended solely on popularity. It has always depended on organisation, negotiation, elite accommodation and electoral structure. That is precisely the area where the opposition currently appears weakest.

Makinde’s strengths and limitations

Makinde enters the national conversation with certain advantages. He is relatively younger than many frontline contenders, projects himself as pragmatic and has built a reputation for administrative stability in Oyo State. His appeal in parts of the South-West may also position him as an alternative to both Atiku and Obi. However, his national political structure remains limited.

Unlike Atiku, he does not possess deep-rooted networks across the North. Unlike Obi, he does not command a nationwide emotional movement among young voters. And unlike Tinubu, he has not yet demonstrated the capacity to build a durable cross-regional political machine.

The biggest challenge facing Makinde may therefore be not ambition, but timing.

Can the opposition unite again?

The central political question ahead of 2027 is no longer whether Nigerians desire change. Public frustration over inflation, insecurity and economic pressure already suggests widespread dissatisfaction. The real question is whether the opposition can recreate the kind of broad coalition that defeated an incumbent party in 2015.

At the moment, the signs point in the opposite direction.

With Obi, Atiku and Makinde now surfacing simultaneously, the opposition space appears increasingly crowded and divided. Unless a single coalition platform eventually emerges with a consensus candidate and coordinated national structure, the anti-APC movement may struggle to convert public frustration into electoral victory.

In practical terms, the same coalition formula that brought the APC to power during Buhari’s emergence remains the only realistic path to unseating Tinubu in 2027. For now, that coalition appears absent — and possibly lost.