ANALYSIS: PDP and it’s aspirants, By Chris Adetayo

My patented Politic-o-meter (TM) has also been watching the Biggest Party in Africa (TM) as it prepares to pick a candidate for next year’s presidential elections. So what do we know so far?

17 candidates picked and submitted forms, thus earning the PDP slightly less than N700m. Compared to the APC’s N2.8B, this is not “serious” money. Of the 17, two were screened out, leaving 15 to battle it out.

Unlike the APC, we can definitely rule out the possibility of a “consensus” candidate in the PDP. Some of the contestants tried to make this happen early in the race but their efforts were easily scuppered. The PDP will definitely have a fully contested primaries.

The PDP has also refused to zone the presidency. In making it a free-for-all, the party is simply focused on getting back to Aso Rock and can’t be bothered with arguments about equity, “it’s time for SE”etc etc.

So who are the candidates to watch out for? Like the APC, there are no more than 5 serious candidates. Here’s a look at their chances –

1. Bukola Saraki – Ex-Governor, ex-Senate President. He championed the cause of consensus candidacy. His argument was simple – the PDP cannot afford a divided house, so better to come together and handpick a candidate that can appeal across the country. It didn’t work. He doesn’t seem to have the war chest and structure to battle it out. Also, he comes from a “no-man’s-land” part of the country – Kwara. He’s a Northerner who is not North enough, and folks from the South see him as a “double dealer”. All of these portend likely failure at the primaries.
2. Aminu Tambuwal – Governor; ex- Speaker of the House of Reps. Another member of the failed “Consensus Brigade”. What’s going for him? He’s from the North West, easily the most powerful and important political zone in the country. Also, as former Speaker, he has wide contacts across the country. He’s a known name and also media savvy – and these are helpful to cut through the din. But Tambuwal remains a featherweight in this battle. Hard to see him come through, especially because few want to see another North West President.
3. Peter Obi – ex-Governor. The most visible campaigner in the PDP. Unlike others, Obi is running a General Election campaign, with his message of financial frugality, economic management, and honesty being well received across the country. But the problem he faces is that the electorate is a small section within his own party – putting more importance on structure and being party savvy. Even more problematic for him is the lack of zoning, a major handicap for anyone from the South. Were this a fair contest of ideas, and focus is on the man with the best record in public service, hard to see how Obi does not take the PDP’s ticket. But the primaries are a different beast, with delegates whipped into line (via carrots and sticks) by their party leaders (who are mostly committed to someone else). Can Obi somehow find leverage with these bunch? Clock is ticking.
4. Nyesom Wike – Governor. Ex Minister. Has the financial clout to make a battle of this. But that’s where it ends. His grip on the PDP was gradually loosened over the past couple of years, following his rather dictatorial tendencies that saw him demanding and getting the PDP convention to hold in Rivers 4 years ago, and to handpick the party’s Chairman until 2021. Without that leverage, he’s a naked god and I don’t see him making any serious headway with the delegates.
5. Atiku Abubakar – ex-VP. The recurring decimal for 2 decades. A man who has not allowed serial failure to deter him from the race – just like the incumbent President. He has a well oiled political structure, and bags of money to support him. He has gone about quietly – delegate hunting and virtually nothing else. Until he got into the news over the murder of Deborah in Sokoto, little has been heard of his campaign. He refused to get on the consensus bandwagon nor venture much of an opinion about zoning. He’s just quietly going about his business. He has a lot of baggage – but that’s not the worry of PDP delegates at the moment.

Who wins? The smart money is on Atiku Abubakar. He won the ticket 4 years ago. Little has changed since then to cause one to expect a different outcome. But don’t sleep on any of the others just yet!