ANALYSIS: With PDP, The Die Is Cast On Atiku, Where Is  APC? By Kunle Awosiyan

Yesterday night, the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike earned my respect. He showed that he was not just a noise maker but a fighter. He gave the PDP presidential primaries his all and lost gallantly to a perpetual winner of that race, former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.

Anyways, I learnt it was a contest of dollars and promises of juicy offices among aspirants  to the delegates.

It was 237 votes for Wike and 371 for Atiku who had earlier got help from his northern co-contestant  the Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal. However, Wike’s votes is a testament that there are northern delegates who prefer southern candidate.

With the outcome of PDP presidential primary election, APC has got the opportunity to work to the answer and it may get it right if its strategy will not be parochial.

However, there are moles in APC who will rather work for the emergence of Atiku as the next Nigerian president instead of standing with their own candidate.

Atiku is Adamu’s friend in the spirit and a foe as far as the present politics is concerned. Adamu’s emergence as APC chairman was the first error the party committed in its search for a quality leader.

In the last few weeks, Adamu had been acting strangely and adducing his solo moves to President Muhammadu Buhari who was in Malabo on AU assignment.

Adamu has refused to act on some decisions made by the APC National Working Committee, according to his Vice, Mallam Salihu Moh Mustapha. He was alleged to be acting like a PDP spy in APC.

Is Adamu a mole in APC? Did he deliberately postpone the APC presidential primaries to know the outcome of PDP’s or is he truly working with President Muhammadu Buhari as he had claimed to produce a formidable candidate?

Soon, all these questions will get answers and it will begin with the exodus of many APC members to PDP. Of course, aggrieved PDP members will run to APC but not until after the primary election. What matters to many of the moles now is the fertility of the platform that can secure their future, nothing more.

The whole of next week, after the APC primary election will see the manifestation of PDP moles in APC. There is going to be massive defection, which will favour PDP more and consequently spell doom for APC.

Atiku does not need to invite Adamu for a talk, a phone call will mend whatever differences between them to see him becoming the next Nigerian president. I’m waiting to be proved wrong.

Adamu’s actions will decide to some extent whether the APC caucus will listen to Buhari anymore ahead of the next week primaries. Buhari’s sense of judgement on Adamu is proving to be an error now unless it is a game plan by the two and a few others to keep power in the north.

It appears now that the merger of CPC and ACN to form APC in 2014 was to fulfil the ambition of one man, Buhari after which the party is allowed to die at the exit of the man himself. Mr. President has no grip on APC, making the party so permissible to external forces.

Atiku has got the charms to lure opponents to his camp but the exercise will be a bit difficult for him if his friend, an APC presidential aspirant, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu emerges as his party flag bearer.

Both are charmy rivals who know the game and weaknesses of each other. Their emergence will make the 2023 election an interesting one.

However, Adamu can make things easy for Atiku by ensuring that a weak candidate emerges from APC. Any error will make 2023 presidential election a landslide victory for Atiku. He will not only dominate the north, Atiku will win massively in the southeast, south-south and share votes in the southwest with whoever emerges as APC candidate.

Southwest has been liberal in the last two presidential elections, going by the results.

However, in the emergence of Tinubu, APC will have upper hand in the southwest and slight edge in the north because of the vice presidential candidate that will come from the north and of course the numerical strength of APC governors in the region.

Both parties will share south-south votes but southeast is a no-go-area for Tinubu and APC, even though the votes from this region are not always heavy compared to southwest and south-south.

Tinubu has since congratulated Atiku while challenging him for a presidential contest. BAT stands the best chance among all APC aspirants to face Atiku and it will be a “grandmother” of all contest. It will be the first time real networkers and political organisers since 1999 will slug it out.

Unlike in the past when opportunists had suddenly found themselves as the Chief Executive of this country. No doubt, both Tinubu and Atiku had invested in politics, even though one has been jumping from one party to another.

The outcome of their contest will be too close to call.