Analysts predict 26.50% interest rate as CBN holds first MPC meeting in 2026

A group of analysts at Cordros Research have  predicted a cut in interest rate to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent as the Monetary Policy Committee   (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) holds its first meeting in 2026.

The Committee of the CBN is scheduled to hold its first meeting of the year on February 23–24 in Abuja. 

Since the previous meeting, risks to global economic stability have increased amid heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties.

Cordros Research in a report stated that despite sustained moderation in inflation, the MPC has continued to adopt a cautious approach to policy adjustment, partly reflecting, in our view, technical uncertainties surrounding the rebased CPI series. 

The report stated that,  “Beyond the Committee’s official rationale, we believe the decision to maintain the policy rate at the previous meeting was partly influenced by concerns about a potential short term uptick in headline inflation in December. 

“This caution was evident in the narrow split reflected in the published personal statements, where six members voted to retain the MPR at 27.0%, citing the risk of a short-term rebound in headline inflation driven by base effects, while five members supported a 50bps cut.

“However, the anticipated spike did not materialise, following the revision of the CPI index reference period. Instead, headline inflation moderated further in January against broad market expectations, although we assess that the magnitude of the decline was largely mechanically driven. 

“While some uncertainty around the rebased CPI framework persists, we do not foresee any imminent technical distortions that could materially alter the inflation path or undermine policy credibility. 

“Furthermore, improving exchange rate stability and easing supply side pressures provide structural support for continued disinflation. In addition, the external backdrop remains relatively favourable, with a softer US dollar and stable global financial conditions sustaining capital flows toward high-yield emerging and frontier markets, including Nigeria.

“Accordingly, these developments provide room for a gradual adjustment of the policy stance, with the Committee likely remaining mindful of inflation dynamics and external sector risks. 

“On this basis, we expect the MPC to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate by 50basis points to 26.50per cent at its upcoming February meeting, while leaving all other policy parameters unchanged.”