Boko Haram, bandits, IPOB threat to 2023 elections, says Tony Blair Institute

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change said the conduct of the 2023 general election in Nigeria is being threatened by widespread insecurity across the country.

The institute in a report published on Thursday, said nearly all regions of the country are affected by one insecurity issue or the other from Boko Haram, bandits and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).

The report added that the outcome of the 2023 election, either positive or negative, will have a great effect across the continent.

According to the report, while the government claims it has weakened Boko Haram, it remains a strong threat, breaking into three splinter groups and expanding to new territories in the North West and North Central and some parts of the south from its previously known stronghold of the North East, where it ravaged and killed for years.

“However, the primary threat in the North West remains the bandits who, over the past seven years, have killed and kidnapped thousands of people while destroying hundreds of villages and causing the displacement of millions. In the South East, IPOB’s militia, dubbed the ‘Eastern Security Network’, is targeting the northern citizens of this region along ethnic lines, imposing weekly illegal lockdowns and systematically attacking election infrastructure in order to derail democratic process,” the report said.

A result of the activities by these groups the reports said, might stop millions of Nigerians from being able to vote during the elections.

“Data confirm this acute deterioration during the Buhari administration. Between 29 May 2015 and 29 May 2022, 55,430 people were killed by terrorist groups and criminals gangs operating across the country. In 2021 alone, 3.2 million Nigerians had been displaced from their homes, mostly from the north. While some fled across the border to Niger, the majority reside with relatives, typically in urban and suburban areas that are deemed safer.

“The situation has escalated in the past 18 months. During this period, 8,948 Nigerians were killed and 7,184 abducted while, as of July 2022, at least 2,455,190 were registered as internally displaced. If this trend continues, millions of Nigerians will be displaced from their designated polling unit on election day.

“Individuals are only allowed to cast their vote in polls where they originally registered, so the high number of internally displaced people (IDPs) could make a big difference to the outcome of the 2023 election. For example, the 2015 presidential election was won by a margin of less than 2.6 million votes while in 2011, it was by less than 4 million,” it added.

“Boko Haram, bandits and IPOB – threaten the 2023 election in different ways. Boko Haram’s factions will try and endanger the election because this is one of the group’s publicly declared ideological objectives.

“They will do so by stepping up attacks, including bombings in major cities, while displacing some communities and ensuring remote ones are inaccessible for campaigning or holding elections. While bandits are not purposely anti-democratic, their attacks on villages and displacing of more than a million people is set to disenfranchise many Nigerians.

“Meanwhile, IPOB targets critical election infrastructure and threatens candidates and voters while attacking northern residents of the South East region. Additionally, all three will actively target the 1 million election workers who will be transported across Nigeria as well as the thousands of journalists and observers who will monitor the election.

“Boko Haram will attack on an ideological basis, bandits will carry out kidnaps-for-ransom, and IPOB will seek out journalists and observers to send its separatist message while demonstrating its control over the South East.”

The group also listed other issues that might trigger violence during the election to include the “Muslim-Muslim” ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the “ardent and ideologically loyal” supporters of Labour Party’s (LP) Peter Obi and New Nigeria Peoples Party’s (NNPP) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, while also mentioning the challenges of political thugs.

“Unless concerted efforts are made to maintain peace and ensure politicians respect the outcome of the election, 2023 may see a post-election period more similar to 2011 than to 2019,” it said.

It also touched on the issue of fake news and how it helps trigger violence within a short time.

“There is no doubt that social media has contributed to Nigeria’s democratisation and citizen participation in politics. However, its potential to spread fake news, conspiracy theories and mis- and disinformation are glaring and have the potential to further fan the flames of division and violence.”