Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas: A temporary pause or prelude to more conflict?

Months of intense negotiations across various cities and levels have brought Israel and Hamas closer to striking a ceasefire deal. However, even if an agreement is reached—which is still uncertain—it may only last a few weeks before collapsing and the war in Gaza resuming.

As senior negotiators prepare to meet this weekend in Cairo, several sticking points remain in discussions over the proposed three-phase agreement. Israel has made it clear that after the initial six-week phase, any pause in fighting may be temporary, as it is not ready to agree to a permanent ceasefire.

“I am ready to do a partial deal, it is no secret, that will bring back some of the people,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 in late June. “But we are committed to continuing the war after the pause in order to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas. I will not give up on this.”

There is no indication that Israel’s position has changed, and the fact that this stance does not violate the ongoing negotiations represents a breakthrough for Israel. Essentially, it allows both Israel and Hamas to abandon talks after the six-week first phase and resume the conflict.

This breakthrough resulted from a concession by Hamas, which has been advocating for the temporary pause to transition seamlessly into a permanent ceasefire and end the war.

Riki Baruch, the sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage, met with Netanyahu this week and told CNN that her takeaway from the meeting was “the Prime Minister’s promise to defeat Hamas, and to continue fighting until the last of the hostages returns.”

Understanding that any agreement reached would not guarantee an end to the war, U.S. officials have lowered their expectations, focusing instead on achieving a temporary period of calm. They hope that sufficient pressure will build on multiple fronts during the pause to prevent a resurgence of violence.

“What we’re focused on right now is getting a ceasefire deal in place, getting those hostages home, getting six weeks of calm,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week. “That’s really what our goal is right now.”

A ceasefire that leads to a pause in fighting would be welcomed by many on both sides. Palestinians in Gaza, nearly all of whom have been displaced, would receive a respite from almost a year of continuous Israeli bombing, along with desperately needed aid. Israeli families would see hostages or their remains returned after ten painful months of waiting.

Huge Challenges Remain if Initial Deal is Reached

However, as complex as the hurdles are to reach the first stage of an agreement, even tougher challenges lie ahead before Israel agrees to end the war.

According to the agreement’s framework, a permanent end to the fighting would begin in the second phase, during which Hamas would release all remaining hostages and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza. In the third phase, reconstruction in the enclave would start, and the final remains of hostages would be returned.

When announcing the framework on May 31—which both Hamas and Israel agreed to—President Joe Biden acknowledged that considerable issues would remain to negotiate after the temporary pause began. Hamas hoped the only remaining discussion would concern the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages. Still, Israel insisted that this topic—known as the “keys”—be just one of several matters to be discussed during the transition from the first phase to secure the second.

As long as these discussions continue, Biden had said, the ceasefire from the first phase would also continue, past the six-week mark. Despite the efforts of mediators—the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar—to keep these conversations on track and prevent a return to fighting, they could still collapse, leading both sides to resume hostilities.

Hours after Biden laid out the May 31 framework, Netanyahu’s office posted on X (formerly Twitter) that “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed.”

“The destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” he said.

Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is believed to be alive despite Israeli efforts to locate him. Thousands of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters also remain on the battlefield.

Only about 30 of the more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages are expected to be released by Hamas in the initial part of a truce, and it is still unclear how many of those would be alive, sources familiar with the talks say.

Negotiators are still discussing how many and which Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange, the extent of Israel’s veto power over the names Hamas proposes—particularly those serving longer sentences for violent crimes—and where they would be released to.

New Philadelphi Corridor Proposal

Much recent attention has focused on the question of Israeli troop presence along the Egypt-Gaza border, known as the Philadelphi corridor. Under the agreement being discussed, IDF forces are supposed to withdraw from densely populated areas, but Israel has argued that the border isn’t densely populated and is vital for preventing weapons smuggling into Gaza.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu’s office denied an Israeli report that he had agreed to withdraw from the corridor.

“Achievement of all of [Israel’s] objectives for the war,” a statement said, “requires securing the southern border.”

Holding onto Philadelphi during the six-week first phase, even in a limited way with fewer forces, would provide Israel with military flexibility and more options for future scenarios.

CNN reported on Friday that Israel has come up with a new proposal regarding the corridor, which Egypt is set to deliver to Hamas. Israel submitted the revised plan on Thursday, according to a diplomat and an Israeli source familiar with the talks.

The new Israeli proposal, which includes a map showing where Israeli troops would be deployed, reduces the number of troops and military posts along the strategic corridor bordering Egypt from Israel’s previous position, according to the Israeli source. Egyptian negotiators had rejected the previous Israeli map days earlier and declined to transfer it to Hamas, deeming it a non-starter.

Hamas’ response to the new proposal will be crucial in determining whether it sends negotiators to an anticipated summit in Cairo on Sunday. If they attend, the two sides could engage in serious negotiations, with each delegation in separate rooms and Egyptian and Qatari mediators shuttling between them.

The new proposal was the result of an hours-long meeting between Netanyahu and his negotiating team on Thursday, during which Netanyahu agreed to reduce troop levels. This meeting occurred a day after Netanyahu spoke with President Joe Biden, who urged Netanyahu to show more flexibility on the Philadelphi corridor.

Deep Divisions Among Israeli Leadership

There are deep divisions and differing opinions among Israeli security officials and within the Netanyahu government. Far-right cabinet members have criticized any ceasefire agreement, while Israeli reports cite security officials accusing Netanyahu of undermining the negotiations.

“The (Israeli) military would like a ceasefire now, a ceasefire that achieves the objectives of getting hostages out,” a senior American official said. “All outstanding issues are manageable. Not perfect but manageable.”

The lead negotiator for the Biden administration, CIA Director Bill Burns, arrived in Cairo for the latest round of talks on Friday.

To try to finalize an agreement, the U.S., along with co-mediators Qatar and Egypt, put forward a proposal to bridge the final disagreements.

Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was visiting Israel, said Netanyahu had agreed to the proposal, while Hamas had not yet.

Hamas has accused Israel in recent days of altering the terms, while reports indicate that Netanyahu has modified and reneged on several positions.

A senior Biden administration official recently referred to Israel’s changes as “clarifications,” while U.S. officials have publicly and consistently maintained that a deal is close and that only “implementation” issues remain to be resolved.

However, many involved are not as optimistic.

One source familiar with all the discussions since the last temporary truce collapsed almost nine months ago described the situation as “near hopeless,” adding that this week’s negotiations following last week’s round in Doha have failed to produce positive developments.

One major unknown is what Hamas leader Sinwar wants: a break for his fighters and for Palestinians suffering immensely, or a broader regional conflict driven by Iran and Hezbollah that would further entangle Israel.

Some observers believe Sinwar is waiting to see how Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran respond to Israel for the recent assassinations of a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut and a Hamas political leader in Tehran.

Whatever the outcome of the weekend’s talks, all signs suggest that the most Israel is willing to consider right now is 42 days of quiet. After that, all bets are off.

“It’s easy to be pessimistic because it’s gone on a long time,” the senior American official conceded. “They could have closed this many times but didn’t.”

Credit: CNN