ECONOMIST: Abe Shinzo’s legacy encompasses the Indo-Pacific
He adopted his favourite mantra from Margaret Thatcher, according to Taniguchi Tomohiko
THE JAPANESE government has decided to hold a state funeral by the end of September for Abe Shinzo, the late former prime minister. There is only one precedent for this in the country’s post-war history: Yoshida Shigeru, a former prime minister, was given a state funeral in 1967. Abe’s ‘Churchillian’ contribution to the nation thus will be etched in history.
I first worked with Abe as his foreign-policy speech writer when he addressed the joint house of the Indian Parliament in the summer of 2007. He will be remembered as the leader whose political vision encompassed the Indo-Pacific. He saw the strength in amassing the Quad democratic nations (Australia, India, Japan and America) to balance China’s rising military power. And 15 years ago, he was among the few who held that China should be met with deterrence, rather than engagement. Today many in Washington, DC and London echo his views.
When he returned for his second term as prime minister in 2012 he realised that he had not tackled the root cause of Japan’s economic malaise in his first term: the dearth of growth. The Japanese mind, once entrepreneurial, had lost self-confidence. The triple disasters of an earthquake, a tsunami and the meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear-power station exacerbated the situation. In short, many in the country were as down as he had once been. They must rise again, he thought, just as he himself had recovered from the ulcerative colitis which robbed him of his first term in office.
His new mantra? There is no alternative, or TINA. An ardent admirer of Margaret Thatcher, the iron lady, he was fond of using the term when describing what ought to be done. He must rekindle enthusiasm among the young. Women should aspire to shake corporate Japan and change its ways. Tokyo should champion the rules-based liberal trading order, and let the country and its people face competition from abroad. Japan should come out of its post-war anti-military mould to finally work as a collective unit with America’s armed forces, especially around Taiwan.
His accomplishments are many. Economically, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership could not have taken shape, argues Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s former prime minister, had it not been for Abe’s resolve. The same is true of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, a wide-ranging trade and investment pact. Because of Abe the Japanese Self-Defence Forces can now protect American ships and aircraft around the clock, even during peacetime, which would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Britain and Japan are closer now than at any time since the demise of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1921.
His domestic achievements were numerous, too. During his time in office the female labour-participation rate (for women aged 15-64) surpassed that of America in 2014. And 98 out of 100 job-seeking college graduates found decent employers. In 2018 Japan’s rate of child poverty declined to 13.5%, the lowest since 2000. Abe steered Japan as the country rejoiced at a new emperor taking the throne in 2019, and at Japan beating Scotland at the Rugby World Cup. Perhaps it was too good to last. In 2020 Japan suffered from the covid-19 pandemic and Abe’s chronic illness, previously under control, robbed him of the premiership once again.
Other missions were left unfinished. Abe met Vladimir Putin 27 times. Driven solely by his desire to reduce Russia’s military threat, he sought a deal with the Russian leader. The effort bore no fruit. Mr Putin was among the few in Moscow interested in an agreement with Tokyo. But the Russian leader, Abe eventually realised with bitterness, would not act without support. And after the invasion of Ukraine, Abe knew that Tokyo and Moscow were back where they were in 2013. Now Japan faces simultaneous military threats from three nuclear powers: Russia, North Korea and China. The situation is without precedent.
With Abe now gone, TINA should still hold. Japan has no choice but to strengthen its economy, enhance its defence capacities and nurture its alliances and partnerships. Abe argued recently that America’s strategic ambiguity over Taiwan would serve only to invite more provocations from the Chinese. That is because Beijing knows that the military balance across the Taiwan strait has tipped in its favour. Japan, like many countries in the region, is engaged in a long game with China. It must show commitment, continuity and consistency, as Abe did. The void he has left will long remain unfillable.
Taniguchi Tomohiko is a professor at Keio University in Japan. He wrote foreign-policy speeches for the late Abe Shinzo, Japan’s former prime minister.
Source: Economist Magazine
