Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, by Usman Ayegba

Any student of international relations would tell you that international politics just like its domestic component is not the realm of morality, the philosophy of what is good and bad. War is only unfair to the victim; it is always fair to the aggressor (and the winner). As a result, while observers on both sides occasionally experience intense emotions, politics is regrettably largely emotionless. After all, according to von Clausewitz, politics is war by other means, and war, politics by other means.

Based on this, I would like to react promptly to the ongoing escalation in the already tense Middle East between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Everyone is already aware of the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) overnight military operation deep inside Iran on June 12, 2025, when bunker buster bombs were used to hit Iranian nuclear and weapon facilities in multiple locations. Apart from that, those operations killed at least two top nuclear physicists thought to be in charge of Iran’s nuclear program, as well as a number of defense force leaders.

Understandably, no nation worth its salt would do nothing in such a situation, regardless of how weak and defenseless she might feel or be seen to be. So, for Iranians, it is a question of when the retaliation would happened not if it would take place. But I am worried because it happened too fast and made it obvious that Iran’s actions were motivated more by emotion than by strategy. Dealing with an adversary of Israel’s caliber requires tact and patience that are on par with or better than hers.

In actuality, Israel is well-armed in every possible power configuration you can imagine, and this is no joking matter. Iran is conscious of this. Israel has long been and has greatly improved upon what Iran aspires to be. Therefore, Israel is positioned to be a more powerful military and strategic deterrent in the region than Iran.

Now, Iran ought to have waited and kept the Israelis and international community in suspense of what they are cooking even if they are not cooking anything. It accomplishes 2 objectives:

1. It gives Iranians time to gauge the mood and strength of the international community as well as the enemy and its allies. Recall that Israel has been preparing for this for years and used the IAEA’s ruling that Iran was on the verge of nuclearizing its uranium enrichment into weapons as justification for its preemptive strikes two days ago.
2. It allows Iran ample opportunity to determine who is on his side and who is not. Who are its security establishment’s moles?Sufficient time to formulate plans and strategies regarding the best course of action in the event of a retaliatory attack against Israel.

It played Israel’s game by sending those drones and missiles because it did not follow through on this. Israel might have permitted those drones to strike a few targets in order to launch a second strike and take further action.

As Israel had anticipated, the war has now been declared. It does not appear good for Iran. In the coming days or months, I anticipate a regime change in Iran. After all, that has been the long-term goal of Jerusalem/Tel Aviv.

Due to its own bitter war with its immediate neighbor, Ukraine, which has lasted for almost four years and clearly taken a toll on Russia, Russia is currently unable to provide Iran with much support. China does not have any military alliance with any country in this world. This makes it difficult for China to step into the ring to assist Iran in the event of a full-blown war.

I have said this repeatedly, waiting for China to directly get involved on the side of Iran in event of war is like waiting for the Godot! China prioritizes anything that will help it reach its goal of becoming the world’s most powerful economy and military force, not anything that would prevent it from doing so. Same with North Korea, the ultimate foreign policy goal of Pyangyong is the unification of Korea. The West is strategically trying to divert it by keeping armed South Korea by its side to monitor it.

Iranians ought to have realized that the wars against Russia and Ukraine, the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East, and the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria are all part of a well-planned strategy to cut off Tehran from all potential allies as soon as hostilities break out. Israel and the Western power have been successful in doing so.

The entire peace and deal discussion with the Trump Administration, in my opinion, is really the last step before sending Iran to war.

Now that Iranians have played into their hands, a trap that is too hard for anyone in Iran’s position to avoid, the coming days will be extremely chaotic and hot for the region.

May God save the world!