How a volatile 24 hours edged Iran and Israel to a ceasefire

Since 13 June, Israel has inflicted widespread damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, Iranian missiles have pierced Israel’s defence systems, and the US has conducted strikes against Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Then, over the course of a dizzying 24 hours beginning on Monday, events moved even faster: a US air base came under attack, the White House mediated a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and that deal came close to unravelling.

‘Shelter in place’
The first signs that the conflict was about to spread to the Gulf came through a warning to US citizens in Qatar advising them to “shelter in place.” The UK issued similar advice.

Iran had threatened retaliation for US strikes over the weekend against three nuclear facilities, including the Fordo enrichment site. From his bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly ordered retaliation targeting the US military base at al-Udeid in Qatar.

‘Credible threat’
Qatar closed its airspace, diverting flights. The BBC learned of a credible threat of an Iranian missile attack on the al-Udeid air base. US officials reported missile launchers were aimed toward Qatar. Explosions were heard over Doha as air defence missiles intercepted incoming threats.

‘Not strength but vulnerabilities’
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed the attack, calling US bases “vulnerabilities.” Qatar condemned the “brazen aggression” but confirmed the missiles were intercepted and no casualties occurred.

Analysts suggested the attack was calibrated to allow Iran to save face without causing damage that would escalate the conflict further.

‘Time for peace’
US President Donald Trump described Iran’s attack as “weak” and “effectively countered” but struck a conciliatory tone, thanking Iran “for giving us early notice” and expressing hope for peace in the region.

‘The 12 Day War’
Behind the scenes, the US, Israel, Iran, and Qatar engaged in frantic negotiations. Trump spoke directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while his deputies engaged Iran through back channels. A ceasefire was agreed, with a grace period for “final missions” before it took effect. Trump declared the conflict should be known as “The 12 Day War.”

‘Last round of missiles’
Moments before the ceasefire deadline, Iran launched multiple waves of missiles into Israel. A residential building in Beersheba was hit, killing four people. Israel retaliated with heavy strikes on northern Iran, killing nine people, including a nuclear scientist. Iran accused Israel of firing a “last round of missiles” to beat the ceasefire deadline.

‘Ceasefire is now in effect’
Trump declared the ceasefire officially in effect. Israel announced it had achieved its objectives of degrading Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Iran signaled it would honor the ceasefire if Israel ceased attacks.

Shortly after, air defences were activated again as Israel claimed a missile was launched from Iran. Iran denied responsibility. Israeli Defence Minister ordered intense strikes on Tehran, but Trump intervened via social media, warning: “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”

‘These guys got to calm down’
Speaking from the White House lawn, Trump acknowledged violations of the ceasefire by both sides but insisted the deal was still holding. He expressed frustration with both Iran and Israel for continuing the cycle of retaliation.

A tense call followed between Trump and Netanyahu, where the US president reportedly ordered Israeli military aircraft poised to attack Iran to stand down.

Trump concluded by warning Iran against pursuing nuclear weapons, saying it would be “the last thing” on their minds.

Credit: BBC