How far can Atiku go without Obi? By Kunle Awosiyan

The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, former vice president Atiku Abubakar cannot win the 2023 election without the eastern bloc behind him.

And by extension he will need somebody like the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi to go far. But for pride sake, I do not see Obi jettisoning his presidential ambition since he left PDP for LP.

As the Kaduna State Governor, Malam Nasir El-Rufai put it, the All Progressives Congress has analysed the chances of Atiku and concluded that it is slim because Obi LP will share votes with PDP in the southeast.

In the north, no doubt, the votes will be shared between APC and PDP. However, APC will have an edge because of the stake of the northern progressive governors. They will mobilise voters not just for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu but for their future too. Losing to PDP is like losing their job for the next four years. Some of them can defect to PDP, it does not guarantee them the juicy positions the APC under Tinubu will offer them.

The southwest is for Tinubu. In fact many of my friends who never wanted him now have soft spot for BAT. They are being “batified” steadily.

Atiku himself has seen this scenario as he is presently looking for a way to woo Obi back to his side as a running mate. Will Obi succumb to Atiku’s pressure? Possibly he may do that tomorrow.

For me and with the way the PDP presidential primaries went, I do not see Obi as a threat to Atiku in the east. PDP will beat LP mercilessly in the east because the “Grand Old Party”, has its best foot soldiers in the south-south and southeast for now. Some of the foot soldiers are directly working with the delegates who chose Atiku over Nyesom Wike and frustrated Obi out of PDP.

Labour Party is like “Abiku” whose surrogate parents, the Nigerian workers do not really believe in its existence. Like the mother of “Abiku”, Nigerian labour force watches over the LP with the fear that it might soon die.

Unlike APC and PDP whose supporters had long obtained their PVCs as their first strategy to corner votes, the LP is just coming to the market and vigorously sensitising its supporters to register for the voter’s card before INEC will finally close the door.

Obi is very popular on social media platforms just like vice president Yemi Osinbajo whose speech at the APC convention trended and garnered thousands of views but could only get a little above 200 delegates votes. To some people, Obi is working hard but for me, he is not working smart and this will limit his popularity among the elite, the so called Intellectuals.

If Atiku’s thinking now is how he can woo Obi who left PDP because he did not want to play a second fiddle, then his team is bereft of idea. Their formula is archaic because APC used this merger formula in 2014 and had since devised new one to beat the current PDP again.

I see Obi as a movement that can work later in the future but not now. To make this movement become a strong political platform, the former Governor of Anambra State must first of all conquer his eastern domain and later extend his network to the southwest and the north.

It took the APC flag bearer, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu about 15 years to build the network that eventually won him a presidential ticket and yet he has refused to rest after the victory.

He is not only consulting, he is visiting his co-contestants one after the other to resell himself and to acquire their structures for a bigger election in 2023.

He wants his opponents’ foot soldiers to work for him. Obi should learn that Tinubu first conquered the southwest before moving up north to make new friends. President Muhammadu Buhari first conquered the north before seeking a merger with Tinubu.

Of course there are voters who do not need any education about who to vote for, they are in the urban centres like Lagos, Port Harcourt, Kano and Kaduna. Here,Obi and Atiku can have some succour but the percentage of these voters are low compared to those that will be mobilised to the polling units by political parties foot soldiers.

No doubt, Obi and Atiku will get some votes in Lagos because of its cosmopolitan nature, they can never beat Tinubu in “Lasgidi” o ti o. The future favours Tinubu more than any of the candidates.