IMPI faults IMF’s Nigeria growth forecast, backs local economic optimism
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has criticised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for downgrading its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025 from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent, citing the global oil slump as a primary reason. The policy think tank believes this reasoning is flawed, arguing that Nigeria’s economy has significantly diversified in recent years and is no longer overly reliant on oil revenues.
In a statement signed by its chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI pointed out that Nigeria’s growing non-oil export sector, buoyed by government-driven economic reforms, makes it less vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. As such, the group said it found the revised forecast unconvincing and preferred the 7 percent growth outlook projected by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun.
The group questioned the logic behind IMF’s outlook, stating, “We wonder how a single factor can be responsible for the projected massive decline in the size of an economy, more so, when Nigeria is moving away from its dependency on crude oil earnings.” It contrasted this view with the World Bank’s more optimistic forecast, which expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.6 percent in 2025 and further to 3.8 percent by 2027.
According to IMPI, the World Bank credited the expected growth to continued macroeconomic reforms, improved performance in non-oil sectors like financial services, ICT, and telecommunications, as well as a stable inflation environment and better business sentiment. These elements, IMPI said, provide a more realistic framework for Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
IMPI also argued that IMF forecasts are not sacrosanct and are often contested by member nations. It cited the examples of Mexico and Zambia, which had previously challenged IMF projections that ultimately proved inaccurate. Mexico, in particular, rejected a recent IMF forecast of a 0.3 percent contraction, with President Claudia Sheinbaum maintaining that local models showed otherwise.
Referencing Zambia, IMPI recalled that the IMF wrongly predicted a downturn in the Zambian economy during the 2008 global financial crisis due to falling copper prices. The Zambian economy, however, remained resilient. IMPI said these examples should serve as caution against accepting IMF projections without scrutiny, especially in developing economies.
The think tank also addressed the IMF and World Bank’s shared concerns over poverty levels in Nigeria. It argued that while poverty remains a significant issue, the current federal administration is better positioned than previous governments to tackle the problem effectively through structural reforms and social intervention policies.
Citing data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s March 2025 economic report, IMPI highlighted continued expansion in economic activity as evidenced by a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 52.3 points—the third consecutive month of growth. The group concluded that if Nigeria is ever to reduce poverty sustainably, it will be under the current administration’s watch.
