In Netanyahu’s new Middle East, Syria could become Israel’s biggest strategic gain

Just hours after Islamist rebels ousted longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood at the edge of the occupied Golan Heights and looked out over Syria. The historic downfall, he said in a video message, will create “very important opportunities” for Israel.

As Syria plunged into chaos, with its war-ravaged people facing an uncertain future and its ethnic and religious minorities wary of the new leadership’s jihadist history, Netanyahu’s government saw an opportunity to reshape the region. Israel is now seeking to split Syria into smaller autonomous regions.

“A stable Syria can only be a federal Syria that includes different autonomies and respects different ways of life,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar told European leaders at a meeting in Brussels last month.

Since Hamas’ October 7 attack and ensuing regional conflicts, Netanyahu has vowed to “change the face of the Middle East.” Viewing developments in Syria as a direct result of Israel’s actions, he has expanded territorial control and sought alliances with minority groups in Syria’s peripheries.

Israel’s Military Expansion in Syria

Following Assad’s ouster, Netanyahu ordered an unprecedented Israeli ground push into Syria, upending Israel’s 50-year tacit détente with the Assad family. Hundreds of Israeli airstrikes targeted remnants of Assad’s military to prevent them from falling into militant hands. Israeli forces seized Mount Hermon, Syria’s highest peak, a strategically vital position overlooking Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.

On Monday, Israel targeted radar sites and military command centers in southern Syria. On Thursday, it struck Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Damascus.

An Israeli official told CNN that Israel will not allow the new Syrian regime’s forces to deploy in southern Syria, seeing them as a threat to Israeli citizens.

Shifting Borders and Israel’s Growing Influence

Israel’s border with Syria has remained largely unchanged since the 1967 war, when Israel occupied and later annexed the Golan Heights—a move rejected by most of the international community but endorsed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Israel’s recent actions in Syria have blurred the lines, expanding its territorial reach.

For five decades, Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar ruled Syria, enduring wars and uprisings while maintaining a tense but stable border with Israel. Bashar al-Assad allowed Iran to use Syria as a supply route for Hezbollah in Lebanon, a group that fired thousands of rockets at Israel during the Israel-Hamas war.

Now, Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa—formerly Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, once linked to Al-Qaeda—has taken power in a Turkish-backed offensive. While he initially sought to reassure Israel, Netanyahu’s government remains skeptical.

Israeli officials say their military presence in Syria will be “indefinite.” They have also called for the protection of Syria’s Druze and Kurdish minorities, who could align with Israel in opposition to the Islamist-led government.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz accused Sharaa of being a “jihadist terrorist from the Al-Qaeda school.” This statement followed reports of forces loyal to Sharaa killing hundreds of Alawites in retaliation for an attempted pro-Assad uprising near Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

A Potential Israeli-Druze Alliance?

Netanyahu has instructed the Israeli military to “prepare to defend” the Druze in Syria, a significant religious minority near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Syrian Druze, however, are divided. While some have protested against Israeli involvement, others fear Sharaa’s government may impose strict Islamic rule and see Israel as a potential protector.

A small faction of Syrian Druze has reportedly formed an armed group called the Military Council, possibly signaling openness to Israeli support. However, regional Druze leaders remain wary. Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has warned that Israel aims to exploit Syria’s sectarian divisions for its own benefit.

Israel is also calling for Syria’s Kurds to be protected from Turkish military action. However, analysts believe Israel’s efforts to create sectarian divisions could backfire, potentially uniting Syrians against Israeli intervention.

Other Regional and Global Players in Syria

Israel’s military moves in Syria are the most visible, but other regional and global powers are also expanding their influence:

• Turkey plans to sign a defense pact with Syria’s interim government, deploying fighter jets in central Syria—a move seen as a challenge to Israel.
• Saudi Arabia has shown support for Sharaa’s new government, signaling a shift away from Iran’s influence in Syria.
• Russia, which once helped Assad stay in power, has lost its foothold in Syria. Reports suggest Israel is lobbying the U.S. to let Russia keep its military bases there to weaken Syria’s new leadership.

Netanyahu has made clear that Israel will act against any perceived threats from Syria. “If any other force in Syria today believes that Israel will permit other hostile forces to use Syria as a base of operations against us, they are gravely mistaken,” he said at a news conference with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

With Syria’s future uncertain, Netanyahu sees an opportunity to secure Israel’s strategic position in the region—an ambition that could reshape the Middle East for years to come.

Credit: CNN