Iran warns of escalation after Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader
Israel’s bold assassination of Hezbollah’s leader on Friday has dealt the group its most significant blow since its founding, prompting stern warnings from its Iranian allies.
Tehran declared that Israel has entered a perilous phase of the conflict by shifting the rules of engagement.
As Iran observes its key non-state ally being severely impacted, the question now looms: How will Tehran respond?
The conflict intensified on September 17 when Israel expanded its Gaza war objectives to include Hezbollah’s northern front. The following day, Israel orchestrated an unprecedented attack, exploding thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah members, followed by strikes on walkie-talkies.
The air assault that followed claimed the lives of numerous Hezbollah commanders and caused the highest casualty toll in Lebanon in nearly two decades.
Israel’s airstrike on Friday, which targeted Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut, killed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
How much has Hezbollah been weakened?
Israel claims that Hezbollah’s command structure has been “almost completely dismantled” after eliminating several top officials within the organization.
“Hezbollah has suffered its most significant military losses since its inception. Beyond losing weapons depots and facilities, many senior commanders have been killed, and its communications network has been severely compromised,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute. Despite these setbacks, the group still retains highly skilled commanders and a substantial missile arsenal, including precision-guided missiles capable of inflicting considerable damage on Israel.
Since Israel escalated its campaign, Hezbollah has proven its resilience. It has managed to strike back at northern Israel with force, according to Amal Saad, a Hezbollah expert and lecturer at Cardiff University.
On Wednesday, Israel intercepted a ballistic missile fired by Hezbollah near Tel Aviv, marking a significant escalation. Hezbollah claimed the strike targeted Israeli intelligence headquarters.
While Nasrallah’s death has shaken the group’s morale, Saad asserts that Hezbollah was designed to withstand such shocks. Few can rival Nasrallah’s leadership and popularity, noted Ghaddar, particularly as he is associated with Hezbollah’s past victories, including the end of Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000 and the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.
If Hezbollah’s leadership falters and coordination with Iran is disrupted, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may take the reins, though this would make them more vulnerable, Ghaddar added.
Will Iran intervene?
Iran has so far avoided direct involvement, even as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged that the loss of Hezbollah’s leaders was “a significant blow.” However, after Friday’s airstrike, Iran’s embassy in Lebanon signaled a potential shift, warning that this act constitutes “a serious escalation” that could trigger retribution.
If Hezbollah is unable to defend itself, Iran’s rationale for staying out may no longer hold, explained Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute. Tehran may be forced to intervene to maintain its credibility within the Axis of Resistance.
Iran is likely already helping Hezbollah rebuild its command structure and providing tactical advice, according to Farzin Nadimi of the Washington Institute. Should Hezbollah’s situation worsen, Iran may launch missile and drone strikes, though a broader Iranian intervention remains uncertain.
Iran faces domestic pressures as well. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who seeks to improve ties with the West, must balance his reformist agenda with the demands of hardliners who advocate for a show of strength against Israel.
If Hezbollah’s position deteriorates further, Iran may conclude that war is inevitable and decide to respond before Hezbollah is entirely weakened.
Strategic Significance of Hezbollah
Hezbollah is vital to Iran’s Axis of Resistance, providing Tehran with strategic depth against its adversaries. The destruction of Hezbollah would deal a severe blow to Iran’s regional influence, noted Nadimi, but Tehran has designed Hezbollah to withstand heavy losses and remain a resilient force.
Credit: CNN
