Let Tehran, Tel Aviv bleed, Abuja will pay the price, by Lasisi Olagunju

A tree does not fall in the forest and kill someone at home. That proverb may be true one hundred years ago. It has expired; its truth is lost to the ravages of this century’s technology. Check what Iran and Israel are sending to each other from a million kilometres apart. They are pressing buttons, bursting bunkers and cracking skulls. They are felling trees to kill the enemy at home.

Between Iran and Israel is a land distance of 2,308 kilometres. It takes 14 hours, 30 minutes to fly from Tehran to Tel Aviv. Driving distance from Israel to Nigeria is 6,349 kilometers; total straight line flight distance from Nigeria to Iran is 5,223 kilometers or 2,820 nautical miles. These are what the World Wide Web tell me. Yet, I want to say that we should prepare for the heat of that kitchen of misery.

What is going on in the Middle East is a war thousands of kilometres away from our country, so why should Nigeria be worried? Heat from distant fires is a grim reality in modern warfare. The shockwaves will soon wash up on our shores; household economies will be in trouble. Collapsing deckings will sink on wayfarers.

There are no regional wars again. This is a world war, undeclared. Listen to what experts are saying. Ponderously, they tell us that this war is not just about geopolitics. They say it is about budgets, about prices, and about livelihoods. They point at the direct combatants, fighting and bleeding. They add some more elegant lines. They say, as if in elegy, that: Israel bleeds dollars to stay safe; Iran bleeds oil to stay afloat; America bleeds billions to hold the line. And countries like Nigeria, with no direct stake in the conflict, are involuntarily dragged into its economic consequences.

Those who hold the above views are right. A globalized world has obliterated the local in wars; the canopy is a worldwide foliage of blood and tears. So, as we watch live footages of explosions in Iran and Israel, let it sink in our heads that the financial cost of what is going on is a bell that tolls not just for Tel Aviv and Tehran. Abuja should also brace up. This is also our war.

In this unfair world, missiles flying in the Middle East means misery in Africa. Except a miracle stops Tehran from burning and Tel Aviv ceases bleeding, poor Abuja is sure going to pay part of the price.

Already, the war has pushed global crude oil prices by over 10 percent. Oil prices climbed from about $77 to over $86 per barrel on Sunday. Some forty years ago, this would be good news to oil-rich Nigeria. But it is not so today; a dangerous paradox rules our country: We produce and export crude oil; we import refined fuel from those who buy crude from us. A private refinery here even imports crude. Do the maths and be sorry for us.

The war is spiking global fuel refining costs; shipping costs are rising. Those two items alone will soon impact the price of petrol and diesel on the streets from Lagos to Sokoto. Inflation will worsen, incomes will shrink in value; chants of ebi npa wá will be shrill and widespread; there will be anger on the streets; the people’s belly will rebel; the government will be helpless and in real trouble.

Check from Al Jazeera to the Wall Street Journal; from Oxford Analytica to Reuters, etc etc; a scary story of costs is coming out of this war. We should be worried because we are involved.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) says US$265 billion is needed globally per year to end hunger. That need is largely ignored by countries that have. Instead, the very powerful are expending billions on this avoidable war. For Israel, daily military expenditure is estimated to between $700 million and $800 million. An interceptor costs $700,000; a single missile costs up to $4 million. In one month, Israel would have burnt $12 billion in bombs and missiles.

In a multi million dollar operation, America on Sunday bombed nuclear sites in Iran and congratulated itself. The costs in materials didn’t bother it all.

They will pass the bills to the weak and hike the rate of hunger. Who cares? Before its plunge into the war on Sunday, the United States was already spending billions of dollars on the conflict. It spent on repositioning naval carriers, it spent on enhancing missile defence for allies, it spent on deploying reconnaissance and on logistic support. It has started spending uncommon billions on uncommon bombs bursting Iran.

Burning billions on wars is nothing to the super powers. They profit from their investments in conflicts. The US fought in and prospered from the First World War. Read John Maurice Clark’s ‘The War’s Aftermath in America’, published in Current History (1916-1940). Whenever and wherever you see that country called America in combat, know that it does so for peace and profit, especially for profit. Read Stuart D. Brandes’ ‘Warhogs: A History of War Profits in America.’ They pull the trigger, the mugus of the world pay the price.