NEWS ANALYSIS: Issues in new INEC voters’ registration, By Chris Adetayo
With 96m registered voters, compared to 84m in 2019, we have added 12 million new voters to the list. About 8m of these are reportedly youth/young voters – many of whom hit the voting age of 18 within the last 4 years. This augurs well for our polity – seeing more young people get on the list rather than choose the option of apathy.
But temper the excitement. For we had 69m registered voters in 2015 so in 2 circles, we have added 27m voters to the roll. It means that we added less this time around (12m) than we did in 2019 (15m). With the level of excitement and buzz for 2023 compared to 2019, what could account for the lower rate of registration? Logistics? Technical difficulties? Diminishing returns (ie lower number of unregistered people)? Worth more exploration.
The regional split is also interesting. Perhaps the most notable is how the South South leapfrogged the North Central in total number of registered voters. In 2019, the NC was 3rd with 13.3m while SS logged 12.8m. Now, it’s 15.2m for SS and 14.1m for NC. What is more curious is that the NC added only 800K – the only region that added less than a million to the list. Migration from troubles and difficult economy? Is there a history of lower birth rates in the middle belt? Hard to say for now.
Even more interesting, the South combined to grow by 15% compared to 11% in the North. Given the security challenges up North and the migration of many down to the South, this may not be a surprise. But it’s where the percentage growth is that is even more interesting.
The SS grew by 18% (highest in the country), followed by the SE at 15% and the NE at 14%. The 2 biggest regions did not match their reputations. The NW managed only 11% growth and the SW did only 13%. The NC, at only 6%, was anaemic.
Overall, the South closed the gap slightly. From being 5.6m behind in 2019, it is now just 4.6m less. It also now has 2 (SW and SS) of the largest 3 regions in registered voters. Is this reflective of internal migration issues? Or the data is finally catching up to Southern accusations of under-counting over the years? Still too early to say.
Do these figures have implications for the elections next year? You bet they do! Here are some –
- The NW and SW combine for 43% of total voters. A candidate that can win both has a huge advantage. Expect the major gladiators to pour resources into them.
- The SS growth brings it firmly into play as a critical part of the political equation along with the NC. Their amorphous nature means a lot of unpredictability which will make them decisive.
- Will the increased numbers deliver an increased voter turnout? We had 44% in 2015 and a mere 35% in 2019. Anything less than 50% turnout in 2023 will be a failure and a statement of stagnation.
- Who can get out the votes in their stronghold(s)? If the SE breaks “bigly” for Labour as currently projected, can this make up for shortfalls elsewhere? As the elections draw near, momentum and excitement of the base will be key.
Ok, let’s chew on the above for now.
PS: I’ve done the maths of the total. It’s 94.6m. No idea where the balance of 1.6m is. Will clarify when I do.
