NEWS ANALYSIS: Where the parties stand in a month of campaigning, By Chris Adetayo

So its exactly one month into the official campaign season. One month of free for all. So far, what do we know? What patterns are there? What projections can we make? The patented Politic-o-meter returns with some thoughts.

1. Generally, the Parties were not ready!! Yes, that’s the first thing that hit when campaign season started. None of the major parties were ready. APC, PDP and LP all released and withdrew the list of their Campaign Councils after controversies ensued. Their houses were clearly not in order. There was also no coordinated advertising and media messaging. One expected the media airwaves to be taken over in the first week with grand advertising or even teasers. There was none.
2. APC – first couple of weeks was about the whereabouts of the candidate. Once it was clear that he had moved to the UK, it became about what he was doing there with claims and counterclaims. When he finally returned, he seemed to devote his energy to finalizing his campaign council and uniting his party. To his credit, he has managed this well and the party looks, amongst all the 3 or 4 leading candidates, to be clear and focused about its strategy. Releasing the party’s manifesto is also a plus for the party and candidate.
3. PDP – sadly for the former ruling party, it has found it almost impossible to put forward a united front. A faction, led by the Gov of Rivers State, is determined to derail the party’s candidate. Despite all pleas, it is clear that unless the party’s Chairman is removed from office, this faction will not play ball. Beyond this, other problems abound. The party’s manifesto ran into choppy waters over claims of plagiarism. There was also the candidate repositioning himself as a candidate of the North. May help up North but makes his case in the South even worse. There is still time but not a lot of it….
4. LP – Like the others, got off on the wrong footing with its campaign council list. Withdrawals and removals followed. The candidate however continues to do well with the media – home and abroad. By physically visiting some of the flood ravaged states, he also staked a claim to the “thoughtful leadership” throne. The downside to all these is the failure to release a manifesto and attempting to downplay same.
5. The Rallies – there have been quite a few of them. Perhaps the one thing that seems to create excitement. For good measure, most have been organised by affiliates rather than the parties themselves. LP got us going with well attended rallies in Abuja, Jos, and Lagos. Not to be defeated, APC has had quite a few in Lagos, Osogbo, Ibadan and Kano. PDP is perhaps the only one where the rallies have been party organised and also had the candidate in attendance. Given the crowds, it’s quite clear that the energy across board is high.
6. The Electorate – The latest INEC figures shows that 6 States (Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Katsina and Oyo) constitute 30% of registered voters. They, in effect, form the “Super Six”. It explains why the APC and PDP candidates spent considerable time in Kano in the past few weeks. Expect them to put a lot of resources into these states.

Projections – After a month, the odds still favour the APC candidate. It’s united front, instititional advantage and strong foothold in 4 of the 6 regions provide strong cushion and it has, so far, weathered the Muslim-Muslim storm well. The PDP is currently too broken to deliver and the candidate going “North” seems the only strategy left, with its impact still early to determine. LP continues to face the challenge of presence and spread in the voter-rich parts and it is instructive that of the Super Six, it has a fighting chance in only 2 (Lagos and RIvers).

But there’s 4 months to go…..