Nigeria’s economy set for higher growth in 2026, says IMPI

Nigeria’s new economic model under President Bola Tinubu is expected to drive stronger economic growth from 2026, with the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected to rise significantly, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has said.

In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy group projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 5.5 per cent in 2026, exceeding forecasts by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMPI said the Tinubu administration had introduced a paradigm shift in economic management, moving Nigeria away from its long-standing dependence on crude oil revenues towards a policy-driven model that facilitates economic activities.

According to the group, the new approach focuses on the deliberate use of government policies, regulations and institutional frameworks to reduce bottlenecks, lower business costs and accelerate economic activities, particularly in trade and investment. It noted that the objective is to promote sustainable and inclusive growth by improving efficiency and cutting bureaucratic red tape.

The think tank also pointed to a recent upward revision in Nigeria’s growth outlook by the IMF, describing it as a strong vote of confidence in the country’s economy. It recalled that the IMF had initially made a more cautious projection, but has since revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4 per cent.

IMPI described the revised figure as the IMF’s highest GDP growth projection for Nigeria in the past 17 years, attributing the improvement to the economic reforms implemented by the current administration.

Beyond the IMF’s outlook, the group said there is a growing consensus among domestic and international analysts that Nigeria’s economy will record growth above four per cent in 2026. It noted that the Federal Government has projected a growth rate of 4.68 per cent, while the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) forecast a seven per cent expansion.

The Nigeria Economic Summit Group, IMPI added, projected a 5.5 per cent growth rate, while PwC maintained a more conservative estimate of 4.3 per cent, contingent on higher oil prices. The World Bank has also revised its earlier projection from 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent.

IMPI said the convergence of positive growth forecasts from both local and global institutions signals the emergence of a new economic paradigm for Nigeria, characterised by increased production and productivity, improved foreign exchange stability, easing inflation, rising foreign direct investment inflows and a more supportive regulatory environment anchored on policy-driven economic facilitation.