PDP, Adeleke dominate Osun poll as 90% oppose defection — GSI Survey

By Deborah Oladejo, Osogbo –

The Geopolitical Survey International (GSI) has released its July political trends report for Osun State, revealing that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Governor Ademola Adeleke maintain strong voter support across the state. The survey also highlights a general opposition to the governor’s potential defection from the PDP.

According to GSI’s lead consultant, Dr. Adeyemo Adeyefa, the survey was conducted between July 1 and 20, with 30,000 respondents evenly drawn from the three senatorial districts. Respondents were questioned about their voting preferences, Adeleke’s re-election chances, the effect of political defections, and whether he should remain in the PDP.

The results show that 71.5% of respondents would vote for the PDP if the Osun governorship election were held today, an increase from previous ratings of 60–65%. The APC garnered 15% support, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) secured 10%. About 4.5% of respondents were undecided.

The survey further revealed that PDP’s support is strongest in Osun West and Osun Central, while voter preference is more evenly split among PDP, APC, and ADC in Osun East. The APC’s support has declined from earlier ratings of 20–25% to the current 15%, suggesting a weakening position.

When asked if Governor Adeleke deserves a second term, 72% of respondents said yes. Support for APC and ADC stood at 14% and 10% respectively, while 4% remained undecided.

On the impact of defections, 85% of respondents said it would have no bearing on their voting decisions in 2026. This suggests strong voter loyalty, particularly among PDP supporters.

A significant 90% of respondents said Governor Adeleke should remain in the PDP before and after the 2026 elections, signaling strong disapproval of any defection to the APC. The report attributes this sentiment to the public opposition of APC members in the state to Adeleke joining their party.

Dr. Adeyefa noted that the survey has a margin of error of three percent and reaffirmed GSI’s commitment to fair polling practices. He added that findings from the August edition will be formally presented at a press briefing with key stakeholders and media representatives.