Putin gathers allies to show western pressure isn’t working

The Kremlin describes the summit as one of the “largest-scale foreign policy events ever” in Russia.

Imagine you’re Vladimir Putin. The West has branded you a pariah for invading Ukraine, and sanctions aim to cut off your country’s economy from global markets. There’s even an arrest warrant for you from the International Criminal Court.

So how do you show that the pressure isn’t working? You host a summit.

This week, in the city of Kazan, President Putin will welcome more than 20 heads of state at the BRICS summit of emerging economies. Among the invited leaders are China’s Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The Kremlin has called it one of the “largest-scale foreign policy events ever” in Russia.

“The clear message is that attempts to isolate Russia have failed,” says Chris Weafer, founding partner of the consultancy firm Macro-Advisory.

“A big part of the Kremlin’s message is that Russia is withstanding sanctions. While we know there are severe cracks beneath the surface, at a geopolitical level, Russia still has friends, and they’re all going to be Russia’s partners.”

So, who are Russia’s friends?

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The group, often seen as a counterweight to the Western-led world order, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has also been invited to join.

The BRICS nations account for 45% of the global population. Combined, their economies are worth more than $28.5 trillion (£22 trillion), representing about 28% of the global economy.

This year’s BRICS summit is taking place in Kazan, Russia.

Russian officials have indicated that another 30 countries are interested in joining BRICS or seeking closer ties with the group. Some of these nations will participate in the summit. In Kazan, expect much talk about BRICS representing the “global majority.”

But beyond giving Vladimir Putin a moment on the geopolitical stage, what is the summit likely to achieve?

Eager to ease the pressure from Western sanctions, Putin hopes to convince BRICS members to adopt an alternative to the US dollar for global payments.

“A lot of the problems Russia’s economy faces are tied to cross-border trade and payments, much of which is linked to the US dollar,” says Mr. Weafer.

“The US Treasury has enormous power and influence over global trade because the US dollar is the primary currency for settling international transactions. Russia’s main goal is to break the dominance of the US dollar. It wants BRICS countries to create an alternative trade mechanism and cross-border settlement system that doesn’t involve the dollar, euro, or any G7 currencies, so sanctions would have less impact.”

However, critics highlight differences within BRICS. “Like-minded” is not a word you would use to describe the current membership.

“In some ways, it’s fortunate for the West that China and India can’t agree on much. If they were more united, BRICS would have enormous influence,” says Jim O’Neill, former Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs.

“China and India often try to avoid direct conflict, but getting them to cooperate on economic matters is a constant challenge.”

It was Mr. O’Neill who, at the turn of the century, coined the acronym “BRIC” for four emerging economies he believed should be “brought into the center of global policymaking.” These nations eventually formed the BRIC group, later expanded to BRICS with South Africa’s inclusion. Together, they aimed to challenge the dominance of the G7 – the world’s seven largest “advanced” economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US).

It’s not just India and China that have differences. Tensions exist between two of the newest BRICS members, Egypt and Ethiopia. And despite talk of détente, Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been regional rivals.

“The idea that they’ll all fundamentally agree on something of great substance is far-fetched,” says Mr. O’Neill.

While Russia, driven by anti-Western sentiment, speaks of creating a “new world order,” other BRICS members, like India, are keen to maintain good political and economic relations with the West.

In Kazan, Vladimir Putin’s task will be to gloss over the differences and present a picture of unity, showing both the Russian public and the international community that his country is far from isolated.

Credit: BBC