Statistical analysis links 2023 electoral anomalies to Labour Party strongholds

By Kunle Sanni –

A statistical analysis of Nigeria’s 2023 general elections has found that polling units located in Labour Party (LP) strongholds recorded the highest concentration of electoral irregularities, challenging dominant narratives surrounding the conduct of the polls.

The study was conducted as part of a master’s thesis in Data Science at Pan-Atlantic University and analysed results from 123,918 polling units across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the election with 8,794,726 votes. He was followed by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who secured 6,984,520 votes, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party placed third with 6,101,533 votes.

Using several statistical and machine-learning tools, including random forest classifiers, the researcher identified 4,351 polling units—about 3.5 per cent of those analysed—as anomalous. While the overall percentage appears modest, the study noted that the concentration of irregularities in specific regions could be decisive in tightly contested elections.

According to the findings, electoral manipulation during the 2023 polls was not evenly distributed nationwide but clustered in areas where conditions made it easier to manipulate results.

Anambra State recorded the highest anomaly rate at 24.9 per cent, meaning nearly one in four polling units showed multiple indicators of irregularities. Enugu followed with 16.7 per cent, while Imo recorded 10.9 per cent. By contrast, Lagos State—the political base of the winning candidate—had an anomaly rate of 2.3 per cent, while Oyo State recorded just 0.3 per cent.

The report said this pattern contradicts the notion that electoral malpractice was uniformly driven by the ruling party. Instead, it suggests that manipulation crossed party lines and was driven more by opportunity than political ideology.

The analysis also noted discrepancies between uploaded polling unit result sheets and final figures announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), pointing to possible additional layers of manipulation. Rivers State was cited as a key example, where uploaded results reportedly showed a Labour Party victory, but the final tally was declared in favour of the APC.