Steve Rosenberg: Ukraine’s incursion shows Russia’s war is not going to plan
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was initially conceived by the Kremlin as a swift and decisive military operation. The expectation was that within days, or at most a few weeks, Russia would establish control over its neighbor. That was nearly two and a half years ago.
Today, the war in Ukraine continues unabated, far from the quick victory Moscow had anticipated. Despite this, senior Russian officials have repeatedly claimed that the operation is proceeding “according to plan.” President Vladimir Putin reiterated this in May, despite significant setbacks over the past two years: heavy Russian casualties on the battlefield, the destruction of several Russian warships in the Black Sea, drone attacks deep within Russia—even on the Kremlin itself—the shelling of Russian towns and villages near the Ukrainian border, and the mutiny by Wagner mercenaries who marched on Moscow.
This week, a new development was added to the list: a cross-border Ukrainian assault on Russia’s Kursk region.
However, there’s still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Sudzha district of the Kursk region. The exact number of Ukrainian troops involved, the extent of the territory they have seized, and their ultimate objectives remain unclear. As the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted in today’s edition, “Events on the Kursk front are shrouded in the notorious fog of war.”
But even through the fog, some things are undeniable. The unfolding events in the Kursk region further demonstrate that Russia’s war in Ukraine has not gone “according to plan.” The Russian political and military leadership appears to have been caught completely off guard by these developments.
Moscow is unlikely to admit this. Instead, Russian officials are more likely to use the Ukrainian assault to rally public support around the government and reinforce the official Kremlin narrative that Russia is not the aggressor in this conflict, but rather a besieged fortress surrounded by enemies intent on its destruction.
It’s worth noting that it was Russia that initiated the full-scale invasion of its neighbor. When Russian troops crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin labeled it a “special military operation,” claiming they were “liberating” towns and villages. In contrast, Moscow has described the Ukrainian incursion into Russia as a “terrorist attack” and a “provocation.”
The Ukrainian assault on the Kursk region and the ensuing fierce fighting signal that the conflict is drawing closer to Russian soil. But will this shift in dynamics turn Russian public opinion against the war? Not necessarily.
Last year, I visited Belgorod, a Russian region bordering Ukraine that was being shelled from across the border. Residents there unanimously reported that before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the region had been peaceful. Yet, instead of viewing the “special military operation” as a mistake, most people I spoke with called for Russia to intensify its military actions and push deeper into Ukrainian territory.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev echoes this sentiment. In a social media post today, he stated, “We can and we should take more land of the Ukraine that still exists. [We should go to] Odesa, to Kharkiv, to Dnipro, Mykolaiv. To Kyiv and onwards.”
But Dmitry Medvedev is not the one making the final decisions. That responsibility lies with Vladimir Putin. We now wait to see how he will respond to these dramatic developments in southern Russia.
Credit: BBC
