The micro sits on the macro — by Tope Fasua

A lot has aligned for the economy. We stand at a threshold, an epoch of greatness. But we must manage our enthusiasm. Life is not a bed of roses anywhere in the world. It will never be in Nigeria for everyone. We must test our statements, our expectations, for reasonability. For now, a lot is aligning on the macro space, waiting for the micro to layer on. In fact, the micro is already working for some segments of the economy. It’s also important to know that no nation stands in isolation; we work within a global ecosystem. There cannot be job losses and fears from AI in other countries while we merely complain about graduates not finding employment rather than think hard and reposition here, for instance. That said, here are some 20ish indices currently ‘giving’ on the macro side, as Genzees will say:

1. Falling inflation at 14.63%. Targeting single digit by 2027.
2. Falling interest rate levels. Targeting single digit.
3. Growing GDP at 4.43%. Prospects to hit 5% or more by end of year.
4. Growing Naira GDP figures. From N250 trillion 5 years ago to N531 trillion today.
5. Recovering Dollar GDP from $253 trillion in 2024 to $377 bn today.
6. N130 trillion or $100 bn added to stick market, 94% of players are local, meaning that Nigerians are prioritising Nigeria and bringing back money into country from abroad.
7. Recapitalised banks with 80% local money for N4.75trillion.
8. Recapitalised insurance companies with local money with up to N2 trillion.
9. 3 years straight of growing Balance of Payment Surpluses. That is $12 bn for H1 2026 alone. Was $6 bn for whole of 2024.
10. 13 straight quarters of Trade Surpluses since Bola Tinubu ascended. We have been selling more than we buy as a country.
11. Stable to strengthening Naira…with adequate reserves, market makers believe Naira is now UNDERVALUED and will gain to at least 1200 to the $ by end of year or into next year.
12. Foreign reserves at 18 years high of $56 Trillion with prospects to beat the 2007 high of $62 bn thus setting new records and showing great economic stability.
13. Robust capital inflow of $6bn in H1 2026 alone.
14. Zero states owing salaries unlike 27 under Buhari and 20 under Jonathan.
15. Pensioners liabilities getting cleared at federal and state levels.
16. Low debt to GDP ratio of 38% signaling an underborrowed nation by peer comparison.
17. Highly liquid states with growing investments in local infrastructure eg local roads and bridges, agric and water, among other ventures.
18. Rẹ-industrialisation now happening with Nigerian companies standing in the breach. FMCGs, car assemblies, lithium factories, solar panel factories, even a chip maker in the semiconductor arena, apart from Fintechs and banks now taking their businesses abroad.
19. Explosion of e-Commerce and payment systems repositioning many Nigerians into better business liquidity.
20. More investments by states and FG in agriculture for food security. Plus private sector participation in mechanised farming. Niger. Jigawa. Kano are some of the states in this space

Many more developments that I may not have captured. These form the MACROECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS upon which microeconomic or the people’s bellies and pockets are meant to thrive. And they are, in many instances.

Below are the segments already benefiting from this great repositioning…

A. Civil servants across the country who now get paid regularly. They number in MILLIONS…they and their dependants are doing better today

B. Students benefiting from NELFUND, and their parents who would have been under tremendous pressure to come up with school fees. These parents have been saved the trouble of coming up with close to N400 bn in school fees. 1.6 students benefiting from NELFUND and getting N20k monthly stipends means N32 Bn relieving their troubles. This money goes to landlords, mamaputs, markets around the students.

C. Universities and polytechnics now getting their fees regularly and fulfilling their contractual obligations with contractors and teachers and non teaching staff. Hence no major strikes and delays to students

D. Exporters of commodities and FCMGs ..including Nigerian car companies. They benefit from a weaker Naira but are making brisk business.

E. Workers, regulators and contractors of oil and gas companies. They make more money when crude prices are high. They number at least a million and have many dependants

F. Banks, Telecoms, fintech companies, their staff and dependants. These companies declare trillion in yearly profits.

G. Manufacturing companies, their staff, value chain suppliers, and their dependants. A few years ago, These companies made losses. Many couldn’t find dollars to.bring in their inputs of machineries etc. Today, they no longer suffer. Google and see that the FMCG conglomerates are back in black.

H. Companies who understand tech leverage especially those who have online presence. Many Nigerians are making cool money from the new global and Nigerian Economy from the comfort of their homes eg online deliveries.

I. Media …Broadcasters.. companies. In the new info age, these guys are minting it. Sometimes from spreading sensational news about Nigeria. That gets the clicks . Yes

J. State government contractors, their staff and dependants. States now pay contractors quickly and are very liquid.

K. Transporters using CNG and making super profits

L. Those in the outsourcing space including young Nigerians who work remotely for foreign companies

M. Tech guru

N. Real estate sector where they sell properties in the billions and somehow find clients

O. Entertainers. Event planners. Caterers. I know one mamaput who bought the land where she sells recently for about N350m. I was shocked. She told me herself. I know another that just completed her building worth over a billion naira.

So, I believe millions of Nigerians are already being touched. Some of the momentum is natural but a greater aspect is because of the reforms which is a way of saying we cannot continue doing the wrong things forever.

Nigeria is on the March under President Tinubu. Don’t listen to wounded lions and naysayers who are concerned only about powergrab. And for those who find themselves in the cold as a result of reforms, please think hard, seek help, network, change your circle of friends where possible or necessary, tell yourselves the truth about reality, at least try. Stay positive and things will change for the better. More of the benefits are coming. And you can look at the policies line by line and see whatever I didnt capture. Each policy opens a new vista of possibilities.

–Fasua (PhD) is Economic Adviser to the President in the office of the Vice President