Trump, Zelensky and the Oval Office fiasco, by Simbo Olorunfemi

“Politics follows personality”
– Bill Maher

There is no logic to the spin. There is simply no point to it. What played out at the Oval Office on Friday between the Ukrainian President Zelensky, American President Trump and Vice President JD Vance was an unprecedented and unmitigated disaster, with President Trump coming off much smaller than he has ever been.

The debacle was neither pre-planned nor deliberately orchestrated, as some have attempted to present it. There was no reason for that to have been the objective. That event was carefully planned as one for President Trump to bask in the glory of his accomplishment and thump his chest as the greatest deal-maker, and the ultimate peacemaker, a precursor to making the argument that he is most deserving of a Nobel Peace Prize.

The table was already set to put ink to paper on the minerals deal, which had been agreed upon, even if Zelensky was less than happy with it. He knew he had not much of a choice and was ready to sign this deal and even the ceasefire agreement to follow despite his reservations about a one-sided deal, only holding on in hope that Europe would rally some measure of security guarantee for his country. He, like other leaders in Europe can clearly see President Trump’s body language that all he wants is ‘peace’ as soon as possible, just to claim credit for it. He doesn’t care about Ukraine, Zelensky, Europe, or anyone else. He only cares about Trump. And his base.

Diplomatic meetings/interactions at the Presidential level, especially the public face of it, is carefully planned and highly choreographed. The hard bargaining is done behind the scenes, the nuts and bolts are carefully screwed before coming to the public. Indeed, the Zelensky visit would most likely not have come without an agreement in place, at least, in principle. That is the reason why some have said he only needed to have smiled through the pain, bear with the moment, and walk out with a deal.

Indeed, the meeting at the Oval Office was supposed to be only a preamble to the signing ceremony and the Joint Press Conference. Before now, the idea of bringing in the media into the Oval Office was ore for photo ops and a few sound bites, but with the showman, every opportunity must be taken to put up a good show for the TV, and that has now begun to take on a life of its own.

In this instance, all was going well until Vice President Vance decided to write himself into the script. While some have argued that Zelensky should have simply ignored him, but it was easy to see he had had enough of the blatant revisionism that had been going on. Even then, all he did was set the records straight and place his concerns in the proper context, but Vance, who was in breach of protocol in the first place, with his back to the wall, in his attempt at deflection, succeeded in derailing the conversation, setting the stage for the chaos that then ensued.
The odd situation was made worse by the rather awkward ‘intimate’ or ‘cramped’ nature of the Oval office with too many uncomfortable heads in the little space.

Diplomatesse is about dignity in speech and carriage. Words are measured and guarded not to ruffle feathers. The diplomatic language is refined, not crude. There is no place in diplomacy for crude and unkind words for allies. Realism does not preach that

What played out at the Oval Office was an unprecedented and unexplainable turn of events that aides and diplomats must have scrambled to find a solution to. Diplomatic interactions characterised by civility and decency, which are not exactly on friendly terms with the current occupants of the office, but even for them, this was not in the bargaining. The idea that this was some strategic play by Trump is ridiculous.

The decision to cancel the signing of the deal and excuse Mr Zelensky from the White House was the last-gasp attempt at face-saving and make something of a bad situation. Mr Trump’s ego was already bruised. Mr Zelensky’s audacity to talk back was seen as disrespectful, just as his body language – from the shaking of his head to the folding of his arms across his chest was deemed disrespectful.

So rather than brush aside ego and have this agreement signed so that Mr Trump can have it, as he obviously desired, as bragging points in his address to the Congress this week, they chose to let Zelensky go empty-handed, pushing out the narrative that it was on account of his refusal to agree to a peace deal.

While there is no doubt that Ukraine needs a way out of the protracted war, just as Russia does, Trump does need for the deal signed as much as Zelensky, if not much more, because of how much he has invested in hype over his capacity in brokering deals. He can’t wait to gloat, and would have loved to do so in his address to the Congress.

What we witnessed was a faux pas, there was nothing strategic about the debacle. Realpolitik has never been about throwing allies under the bus in order to please foes. The major winner from the embarrassing spectacle was Vladimir Putin. What played out President Trump diminished, even though he can always find a way to spin it for his base, just as he has already done.

The saving grace yet remains Europe, which quickly rallied around Zelensky with the Summit of European Leaders in UK coming at the right time. The warm reception by Prime Minister Starmer and later, King Charles, was meant as a strong message. Zelensky must take a bit of comfort and confidence from the 4-step plan, which includes the creation of a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine.

President Trump will still find a way to lean on the understanding between European leaders and. Zelensky to plug in his deal and claw back credit for eventually brokering peace and bringing about an end to the war, when that eventually comes.

Zelensky might have left the White House under circumstances meant to belittle him, but rather than that be the case, his rating shot up in the eyes and minds of millions of people around the world. In standing up rather than cower in the face of intimidation, he demonstrated courage that resonated across the world, again demonstrating that soft power, smartly deployed, can trump hard power, especially when abused.