What is Netenyahu’s end game? By Carrick Ryan

Most experts seem to agree that while Israeli airstrikes will damage some facilities, the most crucial targets remain out of reach of Israeli weapons.

The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), for example – an underground uranium enrichment facility located near Qom – is built deep within a mountain, hundreds of meters below the ground.

The IDF currently have no known weapons that could take this facility out, but the US do (the Massive Ordnance Penetrator “MOP”)… and it would need to be dropped by a B-2 bomber (again, a piece of equipment the Israelis don’t have).

Trump would need to reverse his publicly held position or non-involvement, which seems more likely today than it did yesterday. But it still seems like an incredibly risky strategy to commence a war that requires a notoriously unreliable, unpredictable, and capricious US President to finish.

Meanwhile, the Iranians will now likely accelerate their efforts to attain a weapon so as to achieve an actual deterrent from continued Israeli attacks. There is little incentive for them to hold back now.

So… is there another objective?

So far, only locations associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) have been targeted by Israeli strikes… facilities associated with the regular Iranian military, known as the Artesh, have been largely left alone.

This could be purely because the IRGC facilities pose a greater offensive threat. Or it could be intentional.

The IRGC are seen as more loyal to the Ayatollah and his broader regional ambitions, while the Artesh operate more like traditional armed forces that report to the Government. To summarise a very complex situation… the Artesh are, potentially, more loyal to the Iranian people than the religious clerics.

It’s also worth noting that the name of the Israeli Operation, Rising Lion, may be a nod to Iran’s pre-revolutionary flag which was adorned with a lion.

From my sources within Iran, it feels incredibly unlikely that there will be public protests similar to what was seen last year. The people are terrified, and while their anger is shared at both Israel and their own government, most are currently just scrambling to find somewhere safe for their families.

Any attempt of regime change would have to be initiated by senior members of the Artesh and would require substantial support from soldiers. As unpopular as the regime is, I can’t imagine any would want to be seen as collaborating with Israel.

So personally, I find this scenario highly unlikely… but at the same time, Mossad have pulled off some unlikely operations recently. It’s worth keeping an eye on.

While the IDF is probably not coordinating with opposition forces within Iran, it may be creating an environment where it is more likely, by decapitating IRGC leadership, and potentially even assassinating the Ayatollah (which would be a strategic mistake in my opinion).

But as with Gaza… it’s possible Netenyahu doesn’t actually have an end game. It might all hang on whether Trump is prepared to order his B2 bombers to drop the MOP over Qom.