Why did Netanyahu launch his attack now? By Carrick Ryan

Iran were undeniably building a stockpile of weapons grade uranium, but there has been no intelligence made publicly available to indicate that the threat had suddenly increased. So why now?

This wasn’t a war of necessity, it was a war of opportunity.

Once again… this is a long read, but it’s important to break down Netanyahu’s geostrategic goals here, separated from hyperbolic rhetoric and conspiracy theories.

Importantly, I’m not making any assessment on the righteousness of anyone’s actions here, this is a post detailing Israel’s geostrategic perspective. Not because it’s more important, but because it’s often misunderstood.

To start with, we first need to understand just how significant a nemesis Iran has been to Israel.

Iran has given Hamas about $150 million a year for at least the last 20 years. But unlike Qatari funding, which was used to fund humanitarian and civil aid, Iranian funds have been explicitly used to fund its military wing. Prior to October 7th, Hamas was believed to have at least 30,000 regular armed militants on its payroll.

Hamas used construction materials and building equipment donated by the international community to build an extensive network of tunnels to allow for weapons smuggling and to keep military assets safe from Israeli strikes.

The Iranians not only supplied Hamas with missiles, but trained them to dig up and appropriate water pipes (also donated) to construct an arsenal of unguided rockets.

In one 2021 conflict with Israel, Hamas was able to fire more than 4,300 rockets towards Tel Aviv in just over a week.

But as dangerous as Hamas was to Israel’s south, this was incomparable to the threat posed by Hezbollah to the nation’s north. A group directly funded by Iran since their establishment, sharing deep theological ties, and reportedly receiving anywhere between $700 million and $1 billion in military aid from Iran every year.

Crucially, thanks to the cooperation of Assad’s regime in Syria, Iran has been able to supply Hezbollah with advanced military hardware without having to worry about naval blockades.

Hezbollah has claimed to have 100,000 militants in their ranks, though this was likely an exaggeration. But Hezbollah did have armoured personel carriers, anti-tank guided missile systems, and anti-aircraft missile systems.

Hezbollah has long held the title of the largest non-state army in the world. It is a greater military force than the Lebanese national army, and is battle hardened after assisting Assad in his brutal civil war.

But most concerning for Israel, independent observers have estimated that Hezbollah had 130,000 rockets and missiles at its disposal, all provided by Iran.

This is from an organisation led by a man who once said “If they [the Jews] all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide.”

Together with Iranian backed militants in Yemen and Iraq, this was a self-proclaimed “axis of resistance” with the stated objective of erasing the Israeli state… or liberating the Palestinian people… depending on who you ask.

But it was also an important insurance policy for Iran… If Israel were to ever launch substantial air strikes against Iran, it was largely expected that Hamas and Hezbollah forces would unleash their military potential against Israel and impose a cost upon the Israeli people from short range that would be politically intolerable.

…and for many years, that threat has worked.

October 7th changed that equation.

It’s important to understand how the events of this day radicalised much of the Israeli population.

I know that the footage emerging from Gaza has radicalised many people as far away as Australia. This isn’t about which was worse… it’s about what the Israelis saw first.

The footage of Israeli families being hunted by Hamas gunmem, of parents being executed in front of their children, and hundreds of young festival goers being slaughtered by masked men (there is footage of all of this), as well as the sight of young Israeli women and children being taken away as hostages. There is hours of footage of inhuman cruelty perpetrated by men celebrating their crimes in screams of ecstacy.

It’s really important to consider how your community would react if that happened less than an hour’s drive away from your home, from your children’s school, and to people you know.

Think of how vociferously social media would demand a ruthless response, and how quickly a right wing government would promise one.

But remember…October 7th happened on Netenyahu’s watch. The blood of 1200 Israelis was on his hands. Immediately following the attacks his approval rating wallowed below 25%. His only path to electoral redemption, and crucially… the only way to maintain his immunity from criminal prosecution for corruption, was a resounding military victory over the regime he and many other Israelis hold responsible for the attacks.

I once asked what Netanyahu’s end game was in Gaza… it’s clear now… it was always Iran.

It’s not about defeating Hamas or Hezbollah, it’s about rendering them impotent for long enough to wage this war. Netenyahu knows that even if they can be permanently incapacitated, another resistance movement would soon form in its place… but he believes that without Iran’s money and weapons, they can be easily controlled.

When Sunni militants overthrew the Iranian backed Assad regime in Syria, the IDF’s first priority was to destroy what remained of Syria’s air force and air defence systems, all so a flight path to Iran could be cleared.

The use of overwhelming blunt force in Gaza, and the almost surgical decapitation of Hezbollah leadership and infrastructure, has allowed Netanyahu to focus his guns to the east for a battle no other Israeli Prime Minister has been prepared to start… but no other Israeli Prime Minister has needed to roll the dice this badly.

For the first time in decades, Israel can turn and face Iran without risking all out war on three fronts. This opportunity will be fleeting. Hezbollah will reorganise, and the military occupation of Gaza is unsustainable long term.

Netanyahu knows it’s now or never… he sees this as his one shot at redemption, and he’s prepared to risk a lot to achieve it. He needs regime change, or an unequivocal surrender.

So that’s Netanyahu… what about Trump?

Back in September 2024, before Israel had even completed its land invasion of Lebaon, Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner penned a lengthy essay that I don’t think got enough attention. It’s worth noting these paragraphs.

“I have spent countless hours studying Hezbollah and there is not an expert on earth who thought that what Israel has done to decapitate and degrade them was possible.

This is significant because Iran is now fully exposed. The reason why their nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, despite weak air defense systems, is because Hezbollah has been a loaded gun pointed at Israel. Iran spent the last forty years building this capability as its deterrent.”

…

“The right move now for America would be to tell Israel to finish the job. It’s long overdue. And it’s not only Israel’s fight.”

That was ten months ago… don’t under estimates Kushner’s influence.

–Ryan is a former Federal Agent in US and now a political blogger