Why Nigeria’s 2024 GDP growth outperformed global institution, experts’ projections – IMPI
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has described Nigeria’s 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as a fair reflection of the success of President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Niyi Akinsiju, IMPI noted that the 3.40% full-year growth rate was not surprising, as it exceeded the projections of global institutions and financial analysts.
IMPI attributed the earlier lower projections to a misunderstanding of the Tinubu administration’s reforms.
The statement read:
“The value of Nigeria’s 2024 aggregate output of both goods and services, as reflected in the year’s Gross Domestic Product, affirms the impact of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms, which began on May 29, 2023.
At 3.40% full-year GDP growth, the Nigerian economy in 2024 outperformed projections made by global institutions and experts.
This represents an increase of 0.66 percentage points from the 2.74% recorded in 2023. The growth was largely driven by the 3.84% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The 3.40% GDP growth in 2024 marks the highest rate between 2022 and 2024. The country’s real GDP stood at 3.25% in 2022, declined to 2.86% in 2023, before rising to 3.40% in 2024.”
IMPI further analyzed various GDP projections issued at the beginning of the year, comparing them with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.
“Our review compared the official 2024 GDP growth rate with projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers), and the Nigeria-based Financial Derivatives Company.
The IMF initially projected a 2.9% growth rate for Nigeria in 2024 before revising it to 3.30%. Similarly, the World Bank estimated a 3.30% growth rate. However, both institutions underestimated Nigeria’s actual GDP growth by 0.10 percentage points.
Ultimately, global institutions misjudged Nigeria’s economic performance in 2024 by more than one percentage point.”
The policy think tank also projected that Nigeria would exceed World Bank and IMF projections in 2025.
“We have reviewed Nigeria’s 2025 GDP projections from the same entities and observed a significant gap between global and domestic forecasts.
The IMF predicts 3.2% real GDP growth for Nigeria in 2025, while the World Bank estimates 3.5%. PwC projects a 3.3% growth rate.
However, domestic projections offer a more optimistic outlook. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forecasts 4.17% GDP growth, while the Financial Derivatives Company projects a potential 6% expansion in 2025.”
IMPI argued that global institutions fail to fully grasp the impact of Tinubu’s economic policies.
“Nigeria’s economic trajectory has shifted from a subsidy-driven model to a market-based system. While remnants of the old structure persist, the ongoing reforms have lifted key growth constraints, such as price controls induced by subsidies.
We align with the 4.7% to 6% GDP growth forecast by the CBN and Financial Derivatives Company. Our analysis of Nigeria’s production and fiscal dynamics suggests a possible 5.4% GDP growth in 2025.
This projection is supported by:
- A sustained decline in inflation
- Reduced exchange rate volatility
- Falling interest rates
- Increased foreign portfolio and direct investments in the country.”
The statement concluded that Nigeria’s economy is on a trajectory of stronger and more sustainable growth, despite underestimations by global financial institutions.
