Why West Africa is now world’s terrorism hotspot

In a brazen attack just before dawn on September 17, jihadists infiltrated Mali’s capital, Bamako, targeting a police training academy, setting the presidential jet ablaze, and killing dozens of students. The strike was the most daring in a West African capital since 2016 and demonstrated that jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State, which have predominantly waged rural insurgencies, can also target urban centers.

The Sahel, a vast region stretching across sub-Saharan Africa, has become a global terrorism hotspot. While the conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan dominates headlines, the escalating violence in West Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, is contributing to a sharp rise in migration toward Europe. The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported a 62% increase in migrants arriving in Europe from the Sahel in the first six months of 2024 compared to the previous year, driven by conflict and climate change.

Jihadist-controlled territories in the Sahel are increasingly becoming breeding grounds for potential attacks on major cities and neighboring states. Fifteen diplomats and experts told Reuters that these regions, where thousands of civilians have been killed and millions displaced, are at risk of being used as launchpads for broader attacks.

The rise of jihadist violence has also played a central role in the wave of military coups that have swept across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger since 2020. The military regimes that replaced Western-backed governments have turned to Russian mercenaries, particularly the Wagner Group, for support, but have continued to lose ground to jihadists.

“I don’t see the regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina holding on forever. Eventually, one of them will fall or lose substantial territory, which Burkina Faso already has,” said Caleb Weiss, editor at the Long War Journal and an expert on jihadist groups. He warned of the potential emergence of jihadist-controlled states in the Sahel.

A Global Terrorism Hotspot

Western powers that once invested in combating jihadists in the region now have limited presence on the ground. Niger’s coup leaders expelled U.S. troops from a major desert drone base in Agadez last year, and American forces are still seeking a new base to reposition their assets. This vacuum has allowed jihadists to roam freely in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

According to Wassim Nasr, a senior research fellow at The Soufan Center, there is no longer any effective air surveillance or support in these countries. Data from the U.S. crisis-monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) shows that the number of violent events involving jihadist groups in the region has nearly doubled since 2021, with 224 attacks per month on average in 2024, up from 128 in 2021.

In Burkina Faso, which has been particularly hard hit, jihadists affiliated with al-Qaeda massacred hundreds of civilians in a single day in the town of Barsalogho, just two hours from the capital, Ouagadougou.

The Institute for Economics and Peace ranked Burkina Faso first on its Global Terrorism Index this year, with fatalities rising 68% to 1,907, accounting for a quarter of terrorism-linked deaths worldwide.

As much as half of Burkina Faso is now beyond government control, leading to a surge in displacement. The violence has compounded the effects of climate change, with floods and droughts forcing rural populations into urban areas and increasing migration from the region’s coast toward Europe.

A Potential Launchpad for Global Jihad

Jihadist groups in the Sahel operate in various regions, often in competition with each other, though they occasionally establish localized non-aggression pacts.

While they receive some support from global jihadist networks, they largely finance themselves through taxation in areas under their control and by seizing weapons from government forces.

European governments are divided on how to respond to the crisis. Southern European nations, which receive the bulk of migrants, favor keeping communication channels open with the military juntas, while others object due to human rights concerns.

The potential for the Sahel to become a base for global jihad, similar to Afghanistan or Libya, is another growing concern. General Michael Langley, head of U.S. Africa Command, warned that these violent extremist groups have aspirations of attacking the United States. However, some experts argue that the jihadist groups have not yet shown an interest in targeting Europe or the U.S.

Will Linder, a retired CIA officer, pointed out that recent attacks, such as those in Bamako and Barsalogho, reveal the failure of the military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso to secure their territories. He stressed the need for new strategies to counter the jihadist insurgencies in the region.

The conflict in West Africa shows no signs of abating, and as violence continues to escalate, the region’s instability poses a growing threat to global security.

Credit: Reuters