2027: SDP may gain from crisis rocking APC, PDP, LP, NNPP

It appears the crisis rocking the major political parties in Nigeria may not end soon as political gladiators within the parties have begun to align, realign, defect and form alliances behind the scene ahead of the 2027 general elections. The crisis currently bedeviling the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC), the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), according to political observers , may end up favour the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a party that has become the bride to many of the aggrieved gladiators in the major political parties.

The PDP since losing the 2023 presidential election has never remain the same again as the struggle over the control of the party had been raging, with the former governor of Rivers and Minister of the FCT, Barr. Nyesom Wike already serving in the APC-led Federal Government remains a strong PDP Chieftain and pulling the strings from behind. There are insinuations in some quarters that Wike is being used by the ruling APC to weaken the PDP ahead of 2027. Those who hold this view are quick to point to the lingering crisis in Rivers State, where Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara have been embroiled in power tussle. Apart from the crisis in Rivers PDP, there is also a raging crisis about the authentic national secretary of the party. Both Senator Sam Anyawu and and Sunday Ude Okoye are laying claims to the position. There is also crisis in Bayelsa PDP and all these pockets of crises have litigation accompanying them all over the country.

The Labour Party leadership crisis is something that could end up be of benefit to the SDP if not resolved before 2027. At the party’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting on September 4, 2024, the party constituted a Caretaker Committee and appointed former Minister and Senator Nenedi Usman, to head the Committee. With the caretaker committee in place, the National Chairman, who was by the caretaker leadership arrangement rendered useless, Barr. Julius Abure, went to court to challenge the party’s decision. After the legal tussle that followed, Abure’s leadership was legalised by the court and Usman’s committee declared illegal and unconstitutional, setting the stage for a long leadership crisis in the party. The crisis recently forced some federal legislators to defect to other political parties.

However, the NNPP, which came fourth in the last presidential election, is also in deep internal imbroglio. The founder of the party, Boniface Aniebonam, has been struggling to reclaim his position as the founder from the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whom he accused of hijacking the party that he joined in 2022. This crisis produced three factions. One is loyal to Kwankwaso, another one loyal to Aniebonam and the third group is loyal to the Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abba Yusuf. Although, the crisis was believed in some quarters to be engineered by the ruling APC in order to decimate NNPP stronghold to favour it as 2027 draws nearer.

The APC despite being a ruling party is also faced with serious internal rancour. One major feature of its own crisis is that it was not pronounced like in PDP, LP and NNPP but it will be politically naive to say the party is united as we moved towards 2027. It will be instructive to note that the National Leader and President of Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu is finding it uneasy to sustain the popularity and acceptance he enjoyed among the Northern APC leaders in 2023. The strong discontent among the APC chieftains in the North, particularly those who felt they contributed to the electoral victory of President Tinubu is top notch. One of such chieftains is the former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who is openly expressing his frustration and anger with the current Federal Government. From all indications, it is obvious that the North is not happy with the current APC-led federal government. They believe that the government has not been fair to them in the distribution of appointments and infrastructure. It is also believed that President Tinubu is equally aware of the crack among the ranks of his supporters from the North and is consciously working to assuage their anger and frustration.

In all of this crisis rocking the major political parties currently, one party that may stand to gain from the situation is the SDP. It appears the party is devoid of rancour, bickering and defection at the moment. This may have interest some members of the APC and PDP to turn it as their next of call for the 2027 general elections. Only recently, former governor of Kaduna State Mallam El- Rufai was sighted having with Gabam in a closed door meeting. Some notable top members of the PDP have been hobnobbing with the party hierarchy in recent times.

The trio of Olu Agunloye, the secretary, Shehu Musa Gabam, the chairman and particularly Adewole Adebayo, its presidential candidate in the 2023 general election have been holding the party tight to the admiration of its members and the larger audience in the society. For the past two years, the party appears to have been intact, building bridges across the six geopolitical zones of the country, penetrating slowly though, into the nooks and crannies of the country. Political analysts have argued that the SDP is worthy of emulation, saying that its political outing in previous Ekiti and Kogi governorship elections cannot be overemphasized. The party’s projection has been consistent with its core message or philosophy of justice for everybody particularly it’s amplified message of its Chapter 2 of the constitution,getting a candidate that has character, competence and capacity, irrespective of the region, tribe or religion.

A political analyst and lawyer, Celestine Nnamani has predicted that the party could spring up surprises in 2027, adding “It has no baggage among its members unlike other parties, its prospects for 2027 is very bright. The peace and stability in the SDP for over two years now would not have been possible without the untiring work of people like the party’s presidential candidate in 2023 general election, Prince Adewole Adebayo. This is where the political dexterity and sagacity of Adebayo is clearly displayed. If you watch him, you will notice that he has been networking, meeting people of various religions, ethnicity and party affiliation, forming alliances, and preaching the message of good governance which only a person with character, competence and capacity can deliver”.

Nnamani added “ At the moment, he is arguably the only politician who has no baggage. I stand to be corrected, if there is any, it would be nice to look through. He is clean by all parameters. He is young which is needed but lacking in our leadership structure. He is cerebral. He is knowledgeable. He knows something about everything. I am not surprised that the former House of Representatives , Usman Bugaje endorses his candidacy. If the party features him again as its flag-bearer in 2027, there is every possibility that Nigerians may queue behind; that’s my personal belief”.