ANALYSIS: OsunDecides2026: The electoral arithmetic pitching Oyebamiji ahead of Adeleke

By Adejayan Gbenga

The August 15 Osun governorship election has developed into a three-way contest between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord, All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Bola Oyebamiji and African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam.

Nearly four years after Adeleke defeated the then-incumbent APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, the political equation has changed significantly.

Adeleke now has incumbency but is no longer running under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the platform that produced his 2022 victory. Oyebamiji has the backing of the APC’s extensive political structure and the advantage of being a candidate of the party controlling the Federal Government. Salaam, meanwhile, represents a third force capable of disrupting the calculations of both major camps.

The election will therefore be decided not simply by popularity, but by party structure, turnout, geographical strength, winning margins and the distribution of the third-force vote.

The numbers behind the contest

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says the final register contains 2,339,233 voters across 30 local government areas, 332 Registration Areas and 3,763 polling units.

INEC is deploying 3,763 BVAS devices, with 664 additional devices kept as backups, bringing the total prepared for the election to 4,427.

The size of the electorate, however, does not mean the most popular candidate will automatically win. In a close election, the size of a candidate’s margin in strategic LGAs can matter as much as the statewide vote total.

That makes August 15 a contest of electoral efficiency: who can turn political support into accredited votes and produce the strongest margins where they matter most?

Adeleke’s personal machine versus APC structure

A major question is whether Adeleke’s personal political following can compensate for the loss of the PDP structure under which he won in 2022.

Adeleke enters the election with the advantages of incumbency, statewide visibility and almost four years of experience building a political network around government.

But Accord does not possess the organisational depth of the PDP or APC. Adeleke must therefore prove that his support has become sufficiently personal and independent of the PDP machinery.

For Oyebamiji, the calculation is different.

The APC has an established structure extending from the national level to the state, local government, ward and polling-unit levels. That organisation could be crucial in a close election, particularly in mobilising voters and protecting votes.

The APC also controls the Federal Government, allowing Oyebamiji to present himself as a candidate who could provide Osun with closer access to Abuja.

Federal power, however, is not an automatic guarantee. The APC controlled the Federal Government when it lost the state in 2022. Its challenge is to convert its institutional advantage into actual votes.

Turnout and winning margins

Turnout could determine the election.

With more than 2.3 million registered voters, even modest changes in participation across strategic LGAs could alter the statewide result.

Adeleke’s route to victory depends heavily on maintaining substantial margins in Osun West, particularly around the Ede axis, while remaining competitive elsewhere.

Oyebamiji needs to maximise APC votes in traditional strongholds and reduce Adeleke’s margins in areas where the governor is dominant.

The critical issue, therefore, is not simply who wins an LGA but by how much.

Adeleke could lose several LGAs and still win if his victories in strongholds produce sufficiently large margins. Oyebamiji could equally overcome Adeleke’s Osun West advantage by producing big APC margins in Central and Eastern Osun while making gains in competitive areas.

Osun West versus Central and East

Adeleke’s biggest geographical advantage remains Osun West, particularly Ede North and Ede South.

In 2022, Adeleke defeated Oyetola 23,931 to 9,603 in Ede North and 19,438 to 5,704 in Ede South. The combined margins from the two LGAs alone were more than 28,000 votes, almost identical to Adeleke’s statewide winning margin of 28,344.

This explains why Oyebamiji does not necessarily need to defeat Adeleke in Ede. His more realistic objective is to reduce the governor’s margins.

If Adeleke’s Ede advantage falls substantially, the APC will require fewer votes elsewhere to overtake him.

Osun Central provides Oyebamiji with an important counterweight. Boripe, for example, was one of Oyetola’s strongest areas in 2022, where he defeated Adeleke 21,205 to 7,595.

Oyebamiji will need to reproduce or improve such APC margins across the party’s strongholds.

Osun East could become even more unpredictable. Ilesa East and Ilesa West, Ife Central and Ife East, Ife South and Ife North, Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West, Obokun and Oriade could all produce results capable of changing the statewide arithmetic.

Osogbo is another critical battleground because of its political importance and the competition among the three camps.

Salaam and the third-force equation

Najeem Salaam’s performance could ultimately determine who wins.

The former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly does not have Adeleke’s incumbency or Oyebamiji’s APC structure, but a third-force candidate does not need to win many LGAs to influence the outcome.

If Salaam attracts voters dissatisfied with Adeleke but unwilling to support the APC, he could weaken the governor. If he draws APC-leaning voters, however, he could help Adeleke.

The key question is therefore not simply how many votes Salaam wins, but where those votes come from.

A few thousand votes concentrated in competitive LGAs could change the final result.

For Oyebamiji, the ideal scenario is a divided anti-APC and pro-Adeleke electorate, preventing Adeleke from consolidating all voters opposed to the APC.

Security, BVAS and election-day logistics

The conduct of the election will also be critical.

Voting will take place across 3,763 polling units, requiring extensive logistical coordination. The 4,427 BVAS devices prepared by INEC are expected to support voter accreditation and the electronic capture and transmission of polling-unit results.

Delays, malfunctioning devices, insecurity or difficult terrain could affect turnout and create disputes.

Security agencies must also ensure that voters are not intimidated and that political parties can mobilise peacefully.

In a close election, disruption at even a relatively small number of polling units could become politically significant.

Final assessment

OsunDecides2026 is ultimately a contest between Adeleke’s incumbency and personal political machine, Oyebamiji’s APC structure and Salaam’s third-force appeal.

Adeleke must prove that his political coalition survived the move from PDP to Accord, retain his enormous Ede advantage and remain competitive elsewhere.

Oyebamiji’s route is different: maximise APC strongholds, reduce Adeleke’s margins in Osun West, make significant gains in Central and East, and benefit from the fragmentation created by the ADC.

The 2022 result demonstrates why that strategy is plausible. Adeleke’s 28,344-vote statewide victory was relatively narrow compared with the size of the electorate, while his huge Ede margins provided a substantial part of his advantage.

If Oyebamiji can cut those margins, reproduce APC strength in areas such as Boripe and perform competitively in Osun East and Osogbo, the statewide calculation could shift.

That is why Oyebamiji enters August 15 with a credible pathway to an upset.

The election will not necessarily be won by the candidate with the biggest rally or broadest name recognition. It will be won by the candidate who most efficiently converts support into votes, secures the strongest margins in strategic areas and survives the three-way fragmentation.

On that electoral arithmetic, Bola Oyebamiji has a realistic opportunity to finish ahead of both Ademola Adeleke and Najeem Salaam and return the APC to power in Osun State.