Edo no bi Lagos, by Simbo Olorunfemi

Any doubts that Edo no bi Lagos has hopefully been laid to rest by last Saturday’s Governorship election in Edo State, I would think.

I did not understand what the point was in the first place, as Edo could never have been Lagos. But it was obviously something that the current Governor, who could have passed as a Lagos Boy took seriously, perhaps because it resonated well as a campaign slogan.

Years after the election, I was surprised to find standing on the premises of the Government House in Benin, advertising billboards still proclaiming that Edo no bi Lagos.

Well, while I stated that it is pointless asserting what one would have thought to be rather obvious, situated within its originating context and underpinning philosophy, it was a masterstroke that worked well to eventually tilt the outcome of that 2020 election in favour of Governor Obaseki.

While no two elections are ever the same or can ever be the same, the circumstances of that 2020 election would eventually and dramatically turn out to shape the circumstances and outcome of the 2024 election beyond anyone’s contemplation and the permutations of the top political actors and strategists in the state.

Whereas the Esan people of Edo State had reluctantly and unhappily resigned themselves to the fate that their numerical disadvantage in the State has foisted upon them, Governor Obaseki, with his back to the wall in that tight election, threw in the joker that he would ensure that the next Governor of the State, after his tenure, emerged from the Esans’ Edo Central Senatorial Zone.

Not many felt he meant what he promised. Even his Deputy must have simply chuckled to himself, having thought to himself that the question of succession, which was still 4 years ahead would revolve around his person, given how closely politically intertwined the two of them had become. In any case, on the other side of the divide was the almighty Ize-Iyamu, who not only had a high chance of winning in 2020, but just in case he didn’t, would even have a better chance in 2024. But that was before Edo no bi Lagos.

The extent to which that promise resonated with the people of Edo Central who but for the 18-month stint of Prof Osunbor had not had their ‘son’ as Governor of the State is difficult to tell, but Governor Obaseki would go on to win all the 5 local government areas in the Senatorial zone, winning 70% of the votes on his way to retaining his seat as Governor.

But between 2020 and 2024, a lot has changed in Edo State. Governor Obaseki had fully become his own man, taking on everyone within and outside his party. He had fallen out with virtually all the big-name political leaders in the State.

Yet, it was that promise he made in 2020 and was determined to fulfil, for whatever reasons that might be – altruistic or selfish, that would eventually force a change in the State that many desired but were not too sure was politically expedient or smart, given that politics is a game of numbers.

With the numerical advantage residing with Edo South and Oshiomole’s firm stronghold on the North, to simply surrender the ticket to Edo Central without effective buy-in of the South was a reluctant chance to take, even if for sentimental reasons and quest for equity, the moment was deemed to be one for Edo Central.

But with Governor Obaseki quickly pitching his tent with Asue Ighodalo, that threw the spanner in the calculations by other camps within the PDP and even much more, the APC.

While Oshiomole’s lack of support for Ize-Iyamu might have played a part in how things played out within APC, the Pastor was quick to read the tea leaves, electing to upend the arrangements by dropping out and pitching his tent behind Senator Monday Okpebholo. While that initially led to a factionalisation within the party and the conduct of parallel primary elections, the two factions will later patch things up, with Oshiomole’s preferred candidate settling for the position of Deputy Governorship Candidate.

While the original intention by Governor Obaseki might have been that of securing his hold on power or influence after office by having his friend take over from him, his decision did eventually pave way for the big guns to be forced out of the race, leaving it to relatively new players, with the South effectively ceding power to the Central.

Edo no bi Lagos simply reaffirms that all politics is local. The Edo elections further proved that. While some had thought that issues of national significance, the state of the economy and the cost of living crisis will take centre stage in the election, it was apparent that this was largely an election that was to be determined by local an interplay of local issues, with Governor Obaseki being the major issue.

While his structure and resources did help Asue Ighodalo, the Candidate of the PDP, Obaseki’s personality and reputation, heavily weighed against his candidate. While some queried his record and reported high-handedness, few would question the fact that his political management skills was below par, having fallen out with virtually everyone who helped him to attain power.

The election would eventually turn out, on one hand, to be a grudge fight between Obaseki and Oshiomole, with the Candidates becoming only proxies in their own elections. It was a do or die in the words of Obaseki.

While many regard Asue Ighodalo as decent and refined, some say too refined for politics, and rooted for him to win, the Obaseki baggage was said to have counted against him. Some even say that the high numbers by the party in that election was more on account of Ighodalo than Obaseki. Who knows?

Indeed, under Obaseki, the PDP had been struggling in the State. In the 2023 elections, which was just about a year ago, APC won 2 of the 3 senatorial seats in the State as well as 6 House of Representatives’ seats. In the state House of Assembly elections, the PDP initially won 12 seats, while APC won 8, while LP got 1, with Labour also winning majority of the votes in the State in the Presidential elections.

So, while the circumstances are different and no two elections are the same, as has been said, given the recent trend, the performance of the PDP is a remarkable improvement from where it is coming from.

All things considered, it is now beyond doubt that Edo no bi Lagos.

One, there is no case of the incumbent party retaining power as has been the case in Lagos.

Two, there is no case of a gentleman agreement seeing one zone ceding power to the other in the name of zoning.

No two elections are the same. Two might have some things in common, but no two elections can be the same. To say that Edo no bi Lagos is to merely restate the obvious. Edo can never be Lagos. All politics is local.

Perhaps this is a way of Edo telling Godwin and Asue, who are more of Lagos Boys that there is more than one dimension to the mantra – Edo no bi Lagos.

-Olorunfemi, a public communication expert wrote from Abuja