Ekiti: Will Kayode Ojo upturn the political applecart, oust Governor Biodun Oyebanji?

The political atmosphere in Ekiti State is getting charged. Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, aka BAO, is getting jittery and hysterical. His main challenger, Kayode Ojo, is charging forward like a bulldog. Will he create an upset in the state’s political firmament? Will history repeat itself in the state where no incumbent has succeeded himself? WESTERN POST’s Head of POLITICO, IBIDAPO BALOGUN, attempts to answer these nagging questions.

If Oyebanji has the pedigree, the party, and the power, why is his re-election no longer guaranteed?

Governor Biodun Oyebanji has everything he needs to make a smooth sail into a second term in office: a solid political pedigree that began years ago as Special Assistant and later as Chief of Staff to the first governor of the state, Otunba Niyi Adebayo, and Secretary to the State Government during Kayode Fayemi’s tenure. He is in the right party—the governing All Progressives Congress—meaning he is aligned to the centre in Abuja, and he also has the support of the political heavyweights in Ekiti State.
But why Oyebanji has found himself in a floundering position, struggling for re-election, is difficult to fathom.

Oyebanji got a whirlwind of support to win the election into his first term in office in June 2022. Though former Ekiti State First Lady, Erelu Bisi Fayemi, had strongly pushed for him to succeed her husband, Oyebanji eventually won the support of then-Governor Fayemi. And with the backing of his political godfather Adebayo, the newfound leader in the state—Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele—many other leaders, and a large segment of Ekiti people, it was no surprise that Oyebanji coasted home to victory in the June 2022 gubernatorial election. He won in 15 of the 16 councils in the state, polling a massive 187,059 votes.
Four years down the road, the cookies are crumbling for Governor Oyebanji. How?

4 years in office: Has Oyebanji delivered?

This is a million-dollar question. Despite the exponential increase in revenue to the state, fueled by rising federal allocation, the fact that this question cannot be overwhelmingly answered in the affirmative is puzzling. The answer depends on which side of the divide one is on.

Those in Oyebanji’s camp will swear he has performed exceedingly well. They will say he has delivered infrastructure projects and performed well in social services across various parts of the state. They will cite projects in the three senatorial districts of the state, which include agricultural farms, power stations, ongoing road projects, hospitals, schools, the Ekiti Agro-Allied International Cargo Airport, and the Ring Road Phase 1.

Those in the opposing camp will, however, argue that given the huge allocation from Abuja, Oyebanji’s performance has left much to be desired. They will allege that the people of Ekiti are generally dissatisfied with his performance. But where is this opposition coming from?

With PDP’s virtual death in Ekiti, opposition is from within

The situation of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party in the state is very dire. And surmising that the party is virtually dead in the state is stating the obvious. Gone are the days when the PDP and APC would appear to be neck and neck in strength and influence. Even the newly revamped African Democratic Congress has not found any roots in Ekiti. So, the opposition is from within. It is within the governing APC. And ruffling feathers within that rank is Kayode Ojo.

Kayode Ojo: Not exactly an upstart

An engineer and businessman, Ojo was previously Pro-Chancellor of the Federal University, Oye-Ekiti. He was said to have facilitated the repairs of the Ifaki-Ikole Road, which has now eased the movement of students and staff in that corridor. He was also Pro-Chancellor of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka.
His aspiration is allegedly being powered by a coalition of stakeholders within the APC who consider his candidacy a rescue mission.
To dismiss Ojo as a political upstart would be underestimating the mileage he has covered since he entered the race—and the damage he can inflict on Governor Oyebanji.

Is there a crooked wood stoking the fire for Ojo?

There are allegations that the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Mr. Dele Alake—who is also from the state—is backing Ojo. WESTERN POST has, however, confirmed there is no iota of truth in the accusation.

Importantly also, it would be politically suicidal for Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele, who has also been touted as backing Ojo, to do so, lest he move against his own ambition. Bamidele has a burning ambition to govern the state after Oyebanji’s term. This would be in jeopardy if Ojo wins, as he will most likely seek a second term. Bamidele is an indigene of Iyin Ekiti, while Ojo hails from Ikoro Ekiti—both in Ekiti Central, which Bamidele currently represents in the Senate.

Ekiti is no respecter of incumbents

From the first democratically-elected governor of the state in 1999, Otunba Adebayo, to the immediate past governor Fayemi, history has shown that no governor in Ekiti holds office for two consecutive terms. None of them was able to win re-election immediately after their first tenure.

A relatively unknown politician at the time, Mr. Ayo Fayose, ousted Otunba in the 2003 election. Fayose’s tenure, however, was marked by a political crisis that culminated in his impeachment and the eventual declaration of emergency rule in the state in 2006.

After the 2007 governorship poll, in which Mr. Segun Oni of the PDP was declared winner, was cancelled by the Court of Appeal in 2009, Fayemi eventually assumed his 2007 election mandate in October 2010 after winning a rerun election ordered in 10 of the 16 councils in the state.

The story of Governor Fayemi’s ouster through the October 2014 poll is even more confounding. He was widely believed to have performed to the best of his abilities in his first term. Surprisingly, however, Fayose again came back from the brink to sensationally defeat Fayemi in that October 16 election, beating him in all 16 councils in the state.

Will Oyebanji break the jinx? Who or what will decide the Ekiti debacle?

It is yet unclear if Oyebanji can break this jinx, given the formidable opposition stacked against him. He has dissolved his state Executive Council to remove Fayemi’s men from the cabinet and the ghost of the former governor allegedly dogging his path. Because of his alleged romance with the opposition ADC, Fayemi has become a political pariah in some quarters.

In the final analysis, however, what will determine Oyebanji’s fate and where the pendulum swings will be the political forces in Abuja. Will they swing behind Oyebanji—or sink him? Big question indeed!