IMF projects 3% economic growth for Nigeria above global average
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.0 percent in 2025, outperforming the global average growth forecast of 2.5 percent. This is according to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, launched during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C.
While the new projection marks a slight downgrade from the earlier estimate of 3.2 percent issued in January, it still places Nigeria ahead of many economies amid a global slowdown driven by rising uncertainties and trade tensions. The growth forecast for Nigeria in 2026 has also been adjusted to 2.7 percent, down from the previous 3.0 percent.
The IMF’s WEO report, titled “A Critical Juncture Amid Policy Shifts,” highlights that global growth is expected to decline to 2.8 percent in 2025 due to heightened geopolitical tensions, policy realignments, and a spike in trade barriers. The Fund emphasized that recent developments have created a more fragile and uncertain economic environment.
Despite the downward revision, Nigeria’s projected growth stands out, especially as the global economy grapples with significant shocks, including lower demand from advanced economies and disruptions in commodity markets. Sub-Saharan Africa, where Nigeria plays a key economic role, is also expected to see moderated growth in the face of global challenges.
The IMF cited sustained weakness in oil prices and mounting domestic economic pressures as key reasons for revising Nigeria’s forecast. However, it acknowledged the country’s resilience and continued reform efforts, which have helped it maintain a relatively stronger outlook than many peers.
Speaking at the press briefing, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, warned that emerging economies like Nigeria remain vulnerable due to their deep links with global supply chains. “The uncertainty is discouraging investment and activity, and these countries are suffering from declining demand for their exports,” he said.
The Fund raised its estimate of the likelihood of a global recession to 40 percent—up from 25 percent in October 2024—underscoring the rising risk to macroeconomic stability for countries like Nigeria if corrective measures are not taken promptly.
To mitigate these risks, the IMF urged Nigerian policymakers to implement robust fiscal and monetary reforms, strengthen domestic revenue generation, and build buffers to withstand external shocks. It also stressed the importance of enhancing non-oil sectors and attracting sustainable investment to support long-term growth.
