IMPI attributes 14% year-end inflation forecast to Tinubu’s economic reforms

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has credited its forecast of a 14 per cent inflation rate by the end of 2025 to an in-depth analysis of President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies over the past year.

In a statement signed on Thursday by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI said its analysts were able to refine their predictions using a Predictive Regression (PR) model, concluding that inflation would end the year lower than earlier projected. While President Tinubu had projected a 15 per cent inflation rate in his 2025 budget speech, IMPI initially forecast a drop to 17 per cent in September before revising it downward to 14 per cent in October.

IMPI explained that the revision was informed by trends in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The think tank noted that increases in the PMI, which indicate higher production and productivity across 36 sectors of the economy, have historically corresponded with declining inflation rates.

“After linking the rising PMI with the disinflation trend, our analysts observed that the CBN Composite PMI reached 55.4 index points in October 2025, up significantly from earlier months,” the statement read. “This correlated with a headline inflation decline to 16.50 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in September, a decrease of nearly 2 per cent.”

IMPI noted that inflation continued to drop in November, falling to 14.45 per cent, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline, driven by stable macroeconomic policies.

The think tank expressed optimism that the disinflation trend would continue into 2026, particularly as the federal government prepares to deploy 2,000 tractors acquired from Belarus to farms nationwide under a mechanisation service-provider model. Each tractor is expected to cover at least 500 hectares, enabling the cultivation of 100,000 hectares of farmland while serving millions of farmers.

IMPI emphasised that a combination of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies is crucial to consolidating the gains of Tinubu’s reforms and ensuring that more Nigerians feel the benefits of the improving economy.

The organisation concluded that the economy has shifted from the high inflationary environment of 2024 to a more stable and productive state in 2025, with prospects of lifting more Nigerians out of poverty as the effects of the reforms continue to take hold.