IMPI forecasts inflation rate to drop to 14% by year-end

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will decline further to 14 percent by December 2025, following the recent moderation to 18.02 percent.

In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy think tank said the projection reflects continued economic stability and the impact of government measures aimed at curbing inflationary pressures.

IMPI noted that in its September Policy Statement 029, it had forecasted a reduction in inflation to 17 percent from the 20.12 percent recorded in August 2025 — a projection that closely matched the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the organisation, the consistent decline in inflation over the past six months is beginning to influence poverty levels positively. “Inflation plays a major role in determining poverty levels within a country. During periods of sustained price increases, more people tend to fall into poverty due to weakened purchasing power and rising costs of essential goods, particularly food and energy,” it stated.

The statement added that Nigeria’s inflation, which peaked at 34.8 percent in December 2024, was a key factor in the World Bank’s estimate that 139 million Nigerians were living in poverty. “However, the situation has changed in recent months,” IMPI said. “The economy has transitioned from a high inflation environment to a more stable and improving one. Consequently, more Nigerians are being lifted out of poverty as disinflation continues.”

With updated economic data, the think tank revised its outlook, projecting that inflation could fall to 14 percent by the end of the year. It attributed the anticipated improvement to the federal government’s sustained efforts to promote a lower-cost economic environment, despite challenges such as labour disputes.

IMPI also expressed optimism that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would respond to the improving macroeconomic conditions by easing monetary policy. It predicted a reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by at least 150 basis points at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

“We continue to observe strong determination from the federal administration to sustain economic stability,” the statement concluded. “Given current trends, we expect the CBN to consider a further cut in the MPR to consolidate the ongoing disinflation and stimulate economic growth.”