Key stats to know as Manchester United, Arsenal begin EPL campaign at Old Trafford
This Sunday, Old Trafford will come alive as Manchester United take on Arsenal in their Premier League opener.
Key Stats to Know
Arsenal have a 46.3% chance of beating Manchester United, according to Opta’s 10,000 match simulations.
This is only the second time in English top-flight history that United will host Arsenal in their season opener. The last was in the 1989/90 season, which ended in a 4-1 win for United.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League away games (7 wins and 7 draws) since a 1-0 loss at Newcastle in November.
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Both teams ended last season on very different notes. United finished 15th in the league and lost the Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur. Arsenal’s title challenge faded, but they still finished second for the third consecutive season.
Arsenal celebrate their 100th consecutive top-flight season and aim to start strong. They have won their opening league match in five of the last six seasons, including the last three.
Manager Mikel Arteta has strengthened the squad with Viktor Gyökeres, Martín Zubimendi, and Noni Madueke as he pushes for the title. Gyökeres, who scored 68 league goals across the last two seasons, could face his former Sporting CP manager, Ruben Amorim. Arsenal have scored in each of their last 11 Premier League visits to Old Trafford.
United begin Amorim’s first full season in charge at home and will look to rebuild confidence after a poor campaign. Their home record on opening day is the best in the league, with 22 wins. Summer signings Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, and Benjamin Sesko bolster the squad, while Bruno Fernandes remains key — having been United’s only scorer against top-six teams at home last season.
Head-to-Head
United have lost just two of their last 18 Premier League home games against Arsenal (10 wins, 6 draws). Both defeats came under Arteta — in November 2020 and May 2024.
Overall, United have won 99 of 243 meetings with Arsenal. A victory on Sunday would be their 100th win in the rivalry.
Prediction
Opta simulations give Arsenal a 45.1% chance of winning. United stand at 29.5%, while a draw is 25.4%. Season projections suggest Arsenal could win the title in 24% of simulations and finish second 19.7% of the time. United are most likely to finish mid-table, with their highest probabilities in 10th, 12th, or 13th place (7.4% each).
Likely Lineups
Manchester United: André Onana; Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Ayden Heaven; Amad Diallo, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes; Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Arsenal: David Raya; Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori; Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice; Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli.
