Otedola predicts stronger naira as Dangote Refinery reaches full output
Billionaire investor and Chairman of First HoldCo Plc, Femi Otedola, has expressed optimism that the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 against the US dollar before the end of 2026, following the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity.
In a post shared on X on Thursday, Otedola described the refinery’s milestone as a major turning point for Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook. He congratulated Aliko Dangote on what he called a transformational achievement for both Nigeria and the African continent.
According to Otedola, the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily will significantly cut Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel. He noted that decades of dependence on fuel imports had placed sustained pressure on the country’s foreign exchange market.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after years of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he stated, adding that a meaningful strengthening of the naira is increasingly within reach before year-end.
Beyond reaching its nameplate capacity, Otedola disclosed that Dangote has commenced a fresh $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will also include the production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, key inputs used in plastics, packaging and detergent manufacturing.
He noted that increased local production of these materials could further reduce import dependence in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and lower demand for foreign exchange.
Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars annually importing refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity. Fuel imports have remained a major component of the country’s import bill, driving demand for US dollars and contributing to exchange rate volatility.
Located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, the Dangote Refinery is designed to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world. The company recently confirmed it had reached full designed capacity after optimising its Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block, and has begun a 72-hour performance test run in collaboration with its technology partner to validate operational efficiency.
