Scale of Xi’s military purges could hinder China’s ability to fight, says think tank

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has extended his purge of the country’s military to its highest ranks, targeting his top general in a move that underscores the breadth of his anti-corruption campaign. More than 100 officers may have been ousted since 2022, according to a new report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The report, published Tuesday, found that 36 generals and lieutenant generals have been officially purged since 2022, while another 65 officers are listed as missing or potentially removed. When accounting for positions purged more than once, 52% of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) 176 top leadership roles have been affected.

M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the report’s nine authors, described the scale of the campaign as unprecedented. “This figure is striking and extraordinary, demonstrating the depth of Xi’s campaign and the unprecedented churn in the PLA leadership,” he wrote.

While Xi has long sought to root out corruption in the military, the recent wave of removals has included officers close to or appointed by him. Official notices typically cite corruption or violations of “discipline and law,” though the opaque nature of the PLA makes it difficult to determine the precise reasons behind the actions.

The report warns that extending the purge to lower-level officers could have operational consequences. With 56 deputy theater commanders removed, the pool of candidates eligible to lead one of the military’s five theater commands has been reduced by more than 33%, potentially limiting the scope of complex military campaigns.

Bonny Lin, one of the report’s authors, suggested that the impact may already be visible. She noted that PLA exercises around Taiwan in 2025 took 19 and 12 days to implement, compared with four days in 2024.

The report also raises questions about the PLA’s ability to conduct a complex invasion of Taiwan in the coming years, particularly amid countermeasures by the United States and Japan. However, it notes that less complicated operations, such as a blockade, would likely remain within China’s capabilities.

Experts cited in the report cautioned that while the purges may affect short-term readiness, the PLA remains a formidable force. They also warned that newly promoted officers may hesitate to pass negative information up the chain of command, potentially creating risks in crisis management.

Some analysts argue Xi may see the current moment as an opportunity to consolidate control, particularly as global attention is divided. Over time, newly promoted officers could gain experience with modern hardware and operations, potentially restoring confidence within China’s military leadership.

Credit: CNN