The 19 states that will pick Nigeria’s next president — by Kazeem Tiamiyu

With 18 months to go, the road to Aso Rock in 2027 is no longer being paved in Abuja. It’s being fought, ward by ward, in Benue, Rivers, Kano, Kaduna, and Lagos.

While political chatter focuses on governors and defections, new data says the real power lies elsewhere. A VIISAUS report analyzing 20 years of elections concludes that 19 “swing states”, not governors, will ultimately determine who becomes president in 2027.

“The electoral map is far more structurally defined than political rhetoric suggests,” the report notes. In fact, governors only deliver for their party’s presidential candidate 57.8% of the time.

THE MAP: WHERE THE WAR WILL BE FOUGHT

Nigeria’s 36 states now fall into 3 camps:

1. The Reliable Base – 11 “Consistent Aligners”
These states vote with their governor’s party at least 4 out of 5 times. Think Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Abia, Enugu, Ogun, Osun. They are important, but predictable. Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Taraba have a perfect 5-out-of-5 record.

2. The Kingmakers – 19 Swing States
This is the battleground. Elections are won and lost here because margins are thin and voters are not loyal to any one party.

3. The Wildcards
6 states that consistently vote against their governor’s party.

THE 5 MEGA BATTLES TO WATCH

1. LAGOS: TINUBU’S HOME THAT SLIPPED AWAY
In 2023, President Bola Tinubu lost his own Lagos base to Peter Obi: 582,454 vs 572,606. With 7M+ registered voters, Lagos remains ground zero.
SBM Intelligence now calls the Southwest “the country’s key electoral battleground” with 23% undecided voters — the highest in Nigeria. APC retains significant support here, but it’s no longer automatic.

2. KANO: THE NORTH’S BEAUTIFUL BRIDE
If Kano sneezes, Nigeria catches a cold. The state decided 2019 and 2023.
In 2027, it’s a straight fight: APC leveraging federal power vs NDC banking on Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya movement. Kwankwaso is being courted by everyone because Kano votes are concentrated enough to “flip outcomes under the right coalition”.

3. KADUNA: EL-RUFAI’S SHADOW AND THE VOTER THAT ASKS QUESTIONS
Kaduna is “fast becoming a defining battleground”. Atiku beat Tinubu here in 2023.
But the story now is El-Rufai. His legal battles are creating sympathy: “a growing belief that the cases are politically motivated”. With a “highly educated” electorate that “does not believe in politicians… without explaining how”, Kaduna rewards performance, not slogans.

4. RIVERS: THE CRISIS THAT COULD COST THE SOUTH-SOUTH
The feud around Gov Fubara threatens to “alienate Ijaw voters across the region and weaken APC’s electoral calculations”. Yet APC just won 2 assembly seats here in by-elections, showing the fight is still on. NIIA warns Tinubu is “vulnerable in S/S”.

5. BENUE: THE FIGHT FOR THE SOUL OF APC
Nowhere is the internal war bloodier. Gov Hyacinth Alia vs SGF George Akume. The fallout has created “parallel state executives, parallel caucuses”. Who controls Benue APC controls the North-Central narrative.

THE BIGGER PICTURE: COALITIONS AND NON-VOTERS

The opposition’s math is simple but hard: merge Obi’s Southeast + city votes, Atiku’s North, and Kwankwaso’s Kano. Together that was 14.5 million votes in 2023.
“The 2027 election will be Nigerians versus bad leadership,” Peter Obi said.

But there’s another force: non-voters. “Nigeria’s greatest electoral force may not be swing voters. It may be non-voters”.

Meanwhile, APC controls 31 of 36 states and is targeting 28 states. But 2023 proved that even strongholds like Lagos can fall.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
The by-elections were a trailer. APC swept key seats in Kaduna and Adamawa. ADC barely registered.

As one analyst put it, the fiercest contests are now “unfolding in state capitals, where governors, former governors and political godfathers are fighting for control of party structures”.

In 2027, Abuja won’t pick the president.
Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Benue, and 14 other swing states will.

Kazeem Adekunle Tiamiyu is Director of Information youth sports and culture, local government service commission, Osun State