The threatened protests and the search for paradise, by Tope Fasua

I wrote a few weeks back about the broken global economic system, the increasing skew of global wealth in a tiny, few hands (a tinier few of them are Nigerians), and why countries in Sub-Saharan Africa – leaders and led – must be extremely careful lest we devolve into an unending cycle of value destruction. It bears repeating that the brokenness of the global economic system is real, even if not many economists today are talking about it – least of all in Nigeria. Capital has become highly empowered at the expense of everything else, and with capital, the latest and best technologies could be acquired, which will determine how our future pans out. Even in the most developed of countries, 90% of the population will be mere observers and victims of the next course of events. In countries like ours, shoot up that number to perhaps 99.5%. Artificial Intelligence tops up the sundae, and what it promises is yet unclear in totality, even to its chief drivers. It is the reason why there is so much stress everywhere. Africa is a little better in the interim because we don’t suffer much from the stultifying strangle of personal credit and merciless taxes. But that’s only for a while.
Given these issues, the Nigerian Government has been constantly appealing to all and sundry to take things easy and give us some time. This appeal is even more urgent and important given the likelihood of these protests going awry. But in my view, there is a deeper space that we are yet to get to. We must understand that there are no societies without disenfranchised and deprived people. Societies must thus be careful not to be pulled to the base by members who, for one reason or another, have not been able to fulfill their ambitions, or who have no ambitions whatsoever. The easiest thing for people to do is blame someone else for their misfortune. And we also need to remind ourselves that society is better with government than without. Thomas Hobbes described a time in the evolution of man when everyone was on his/her own. You married a woman by clubbing her upside the head and kidnapping her into your home, and any man stronger than you could impale you with a sharpened stone just to re-kidnap the same woman. In the end, people decided that it would be better to vest their right to self-defense in a central body called the government.
Anyhow, it is good to listen to what the organizers of the threatened protests are asking for – faceless as they are. They are asking for an immediate solution to: 1. Hunger 2. Inflation 3. Fuel pump price (reduction to N100 per liter) 4. Minimum wage (even though an agreement has been reached) 5. Power problems 6. Bad roads 7. Budget padding 8. INEC rigging of elections with impunity 9. Highest cost of governance (assuming country comparisons have been done) 10. Highest bidder appointments 11. Excessive borrowings for looting 12. Crude oil theft 13. Non-functional refineries 14. Excess electricity tariffs 15. Excessive bank charges 16. Resource control (maybe they mean states should control their resources) 17. 1999 constitution (I believe they want it junked for a ‘perfect’ constitution) 18. No restructuring (not clear if this does not clash with resource control) 19. Consumption instead of production (this one is a dead giveaway as an Obidient project) 20. Arable farmland without subsidized mechanized farming equipment 21. Breakdown of law and order 22. Injustice at the courts 23. Failed civil service system 24. Non-functional educational system 25. Japa syndrome 26. Corruption 27. Unaccountability of public office holders 28. Poor road networks 29. Worst housing program 30. Non-real estate funding 31. Interest rates for entrepreneurs 32. Devastating economic policies 33. Looting and lootocracy 34. Growing division amongst ethnic groups 35. Naira devaluation 36. Poverty 37. Nonsupport for local manufacturers and local content 38. Highest import duties ever 39. Underfunded army and police 40. Salaries and pension delays. My first reaction to these demands, though, was that if all these issues were fixed, we might as well be living in heaven on earth. Is there anywhere on earth where a bunch of these problems don’t exist?
In addition to these demands floating about in the public space, the EndBadGovernanceNow group has also demanded full disclosure of the salaries and allowances of public senators and rep members (valid), reform of the EFCC, reduction of electricity tariffs, reopening of national borders, and for the government to restore tertiary institutions’ fees by ‘reversing subsidies’ (I wouldn’t know what this means). There is also a demand for the immediate release of ‘Mazi’ Nnamdi Kanu (another dead giveaway), an increase in minimum wage to at least N250,000 (even though the labor union and government have agreed at N70,000 per month), abrogation of the Senate and institution of part-time legislature (this needs a constitutional amendment, only that these guys may be more interested in the anarchical side of things), scrapping of the 1999 Constitution (another farfetched illegality), another national conference, investment in the educational sector and free education, release of political detainees including those detained since EndSARS, re-nationalization of privatized entities (now here’s a big one), reinstatement of subsidies, probe of all past governments, ending of human rights violations, fixing of the power sector, investment in public works and infrastructure, reform of the judiciary and sacking of judges, and institution of diaspora voting.
The overarching demand of the faceless groups happens to be that President Tinubu steps down. It is unsure what the vision is if indeed the government steps down. Like the EndSARS era, this protest – if it does happen – stands the risk of going on forever, and the political angle of it all stands a chance of overwhelming the whole thing. Many may join out of sheer, blind anger, not knowing they are being used by a tiny, faceless few – home and abroad – to achieve rather sinister aims. I wrote extensively around the EndSARS period and warned, and we saw how EndSARS became EndBUHARI, and EndNIGERIA. What split the whole thing was when some of the more vocal players found out they were being used to almost legitimize what Nigeria had legislated as an illegality – same-sex marriage. A chunk of the funding for EndSARS came from a global LGBTQ+ group that was ready to go for the jugular and finally crush the traditional opposition to their ideas and culture. Those groups are always around and seeking. There is a big chance they are also on standby to ‘loud’ this present one. And in the EndSARS period, nobody could account for monies collected. It was a fiasco. From the get-go, the protest doesn’t promise to be logical, or set out with a productive mindset. It is labeled ‘10 Days of Rage’. Rage is a fiery, blind, form of anger. It promises destruction and like I warned in my last article, we cannot afford cycles of destruction of value. Nigeria lost over N3 trillion (almost 2% of her GDP to fire in the EndSARS rage, and about 10% if we consider the work and business that we could not do in that moment). This is part of why our GDP has slowed down today – hoping it comes back up when we are able to rebase.
Some of the demands cannot be measurable. They are aspirational and can only be worked towards. The government is working towards many of them – such as investment in education, fixing of the power sector, fixing of roads and other infrastructure. Some of the demands don’t make sense, e.g. reduction of bank charges (the government cannot do this but the banks themselves), reversion of pump price of petrol to N100 or N300, reform of the EFCC and judiciary at large, etc. Some of the demands are downright political and betray the sponsorship of the protests, such as the demand to release Nnamdi Kanu and increase in wage to N250,000. Yet others are illegal, like those that assume that the constitution can be ignored and substituted with fiat action – such as abolishing the Senate. Even if Nigeria will get to that pass, the process will be methodical.
Then I saw this video circulating online, of President Olusegun Obasanjo engaging with Jeff Koinange (former CNN correspondent whom he had kicked out of Nigeria for ‘hiring people to pose as Niger Delta terrorists’ and putting a bad spin on that saga in 2006/7) and winding up the youths of Africa. Obasanjo spoke of how the youths were hungry and angry and how Africa was sitting on a keg of gunpowder. It was a compelling watch. However, Obasanjo basically handed an open cheque to the youths of Africa to get angry and do whatever they like. The statements were fallacious – by assuming that the youths of other regions of the world were having it good. The statement ignored the very fact that every country is a product of its own history, and that those problems exist everywhere and all the time. The wisest countries have understood how and why not to rile the youths into a fit of rage. Whereas there are many avenues of doing governance better in Nigeria, minding the optics and avoiding blowbacks from the public, it must be said that Nigeria is still a hopeful place and that in the countries that many of our youths have japa-ed to, the kind of oppression, financial hassles, and air of hopelessness.