World Bank raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3%
The World Bank has raised Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.3 per cent from 4.0per cent in 2025, with growth projected to reach 4.4per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update obtained by Nairametrics on Tuesday.
The lender attributed the stronger outlook to improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment, while noting that growth forecasts were upgraded for nearly three-quarters of Sub-Saharan African countries.
The World Bank expects Nigeria’s economic expansion to strengthen over the next three years as the impact of economic reforms and improved macroeconomic management becomes more evident.
The lender said the country was among Zambia, Ethiopia and Angola where growth forecasts were upgraded, reflecting the benefits of reforms and improved economic management.
“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 per cent annually in 2027–28, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, and a gradual recovery in private investment,” the World Bank stated.
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said Sub-Saharan Africa continued to demonstrate resilience, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region.
The World Bank also said stronger regional performance had helped lift its 2026 growth forecast for Africa to 4.3per cent, from 4.1per cent in its April projection.
The revised outlook comes despite a difficult global environment, including higher energy prices linked to the impact of the Iran war on supply chains.
The World Bank’s revised forecast follows stronger recent GDP performance in Nigeria, with the economy expanding at a faster pace in the second quarter of 2026.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The 4.43per cent expansion represented an improvement from the 4.23per cent growth recorded in Q2 2025.
The latest performance provides a recent domestic indicator of the economic expansion reflected in the World Bank’s revised outlook.
The World Bank expects growth to continue strengthening beyond 2026, reaching 4.4per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.
The lender also urged African governments to embrace artificial intelligence as a way to raise productivity and create jobs, as the region seeks to sustain growth in a challenging global environment.
Nigeria’s upgraded outlook therefore places the country among the African economies where ongoing reforms and improving economic management are beginning to translate into stronger growth expectations.
Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings to ‘B’ from ‘B-’.
