CBN to maintain monetary policy rate at 26.50%, says Analysts

A group of analysts at Cordros Research have hinted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will retain its monetary policy rate at 26.50 per cent, while keeping other parameters constant.

The committee will hold its 306th meeting on 20 – 21 July 2026. 

The analysts at Cordros Research stated that, “ We believe the mix of developments since May – inflation tilting higher, a relatively stable naira, robust external reserves and resilient economic growth – points overwhelmingly to the MPC maintaining the status quo. 

“Globally, major central banks have shifted towards a wait-and-see stance, providing little impetus for a change in direction. 

“Domestically, inflation remains elevated but contained, growth is robust, external reserves are at a high level, and the naira has been relatively stable. 

“All in, we expect a HOLD decision from the MPC at the meeting, maintaining the monetary policy rate at 26.50per cent while keeping other parameters constant.”

According to them, the headline inflation moderated slightly to 15.91per cent y/y in June 2026 (May: 15.93per cent y/y), primarily due to a moderation in energy costs and sustained naira stability. 

They stressed that notwithstanding, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside given the recent uptick in oil prices and naira volatility. 

“However, given that inflation print currently sits within the CBN’s 14.5per cent-18.5per cent tolerance band, we believe this will support the MPC’s decision to maintain the status quo while monitoring any emerging price and currency pressures,  ” they said.